Is baby boom heading for a bust?

Published on Wednesday 7 January 2009 20:57

A RISING number of births in Scotland has brought hope to some that a baby boom could be on its way. As people live longer and require more support in their old age, it is vital that the younger generation keeps pace to help balance society out.

After all, who else will work to pay for the care many will need if their extra years of life are spent in poor health?

Last month, figures showed that the number of births in Scotland had hit a 13-year high.

But The Scotsman understands that the financial crisis means any hopes of a baby boom could be short-lived.

Experts also suspect that a growing number of women in higher education and starting their careers will put off childbirth.

Figures from the Registrar General for Scotland revealed that there were 45,500 births from the start of 2008 to September – more than 2,000 up on the same period in 2007, when there were 43,407 births.

An academic insider said part of the reason was the better economic times. But that could all now change.

"The real test of whether the fertility rate is declining long-term, or increasing long-term, is what happens in the next year," the source said. "There is a view that low fertility is cyclical. So when economic times are good, the birth rate goes up slightly. When it is bad, it goes down.

"It will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of years. Are people going to think about having a child or another child in the harder economic times?"

The academic said it was "wishful thinking" to believe that the rises in births in recent years were a major turnaround.

He predicted that in the long term, fertility rates would decline. As well as the poor economic climate, he said the rising number of women in higher education would impact on birth rates, because they would put off having children to focus on careers.