The Republicans: For Dubya, the only way is up

Published on Saturday 8 November 2008 19:16

WHEN George W Bush leaves the White House following the inauguration of President Barack Obama on January 20, 2009, he will, barring a miracle, depart office as the least popular president since modern records began.

All former presidents seek to work on their reputation; after Iraq, Afghanistan and Hurricane Katrina, for Bush it's a must do. Faced with similar, though less dramatic dips in their popularity, other past residents of the White House have fallen back on two ways of improving their standing: creating lavish Presidential Libraries which give their version of their legacy, and writing books.

Plans for the first are well under way. The George W Bush Memorial Library, comprising a library, museum and institute, will be hosted at the Southern Methodist University in Dallas. The library will allow scholars to trace the Bush White House's internal discussions on the legality of waterboarding, or the legal status of inmates in Guantanamo Bay. The institute could well be used to push Bush's interventionist line in foreign affairs and flesh out the Bush Doctrine, the president's attempt to codify his defining political philosophy.

"The first thing he will want to do is relax and recharge his batteries," said Mike Franc of Washington-based conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation. "He has been president for two exhausting terms, so he will have a lot of work to do fixing up his ranch."

Robert Draper, a Texas-born writer, interviewed Bush for his book Dead Certain: The Presidency Of George W Bush. Asked about life after the White House, Bush said: "I can just envision getting in the car, getting bored, going down to the ranch." His priority, the president said, was to "replenish the ol' coffers".

It's hard to believe he needs to: independent assessments put the value of the former oil man at between $9m and $16m (10.2m). But if the Bush bank accounts have been depleted during his time in the White House then he will be relieved to know that he is about to join a high-earning fraternity; no one in the former presidents' club struggles for cash.

On top of the $186,000 pension plus generous allowances that Bush will receive from the federal government, former presidents can earn massive amounts from making speeches. It would seem a remarkable development for a man who has said: "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." However, any former president will find himself in demand and with the ability to earn large sums of money.

Shortly after leaving office, Ronald Reagan received $2m for making two speeches in Japan. Even the less inspirational President George HW Bush, Dubya's father, pockets $100,000 per speech.

Bush may prefer to make his money in oil, the family business, with a series of lucrative positions on the boards of petroleum companies. Famously inarticulate, he is thought unlikely to go down the route of writing books, aside from the obligatory ghost-written memoir of his time in office.

Nor is Bush considered likely to follow the route laid down by former president Jimmy Carter. He has transformed himself into an international human rights activist, observing elections in disputed corners of the globe. Bush, not famed as a traveller before getting elected (one of his few trips outside the US was to Scotland) is, as a result of his policy in Iraq, considered to be at serious risk of assassination if he travels abroad.

As well as financial recovery, historians say presidential reputations can also be turned around after leaving office. Truman, now acclaimed as one of the finest presidents of the last century, was derided as a disaster immediately after leaving office.

Whether that happens to Bush partly depends on events beyond his control, like what happens in Iraq. If Baghdad becomes prosperous and peaceful, then stock in Bush Jnr may start to rise again. In the short term, Laura Bush, the respected first lady who devoted her time to literacy programmes, may have a higher profile than her husband.

But in the long run, some Conservatives even speculate that the former president, who will be just 62 when he retires, might take up political office again. "I'd nominate him to be Secretary General of the United Nations so he could fix that institution," said Franc.

Best of Bushspeak…

I just want you to know that when we talk about war, we're really talking about peace

June 18, 2002

I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully

September 29, 2000

They misunderestimated me

November 6, 2000

The lipstick pit bull won't be muzzled

SARAH Palin finished this election campaign a winner. The Alaska Governor is now a major star in the Republican Party, adored by the right-wing grassroots and perhaps even capable of snaring the presidential nomination herself in 2012.

Though controversy and ridicule continue to swirl around her, with allegations last week that she had no idea Africa was a continent before accepting the vice-presidential nomination, she has become a Teflon figure; nothing seems to stick.

"Palin is a rock star. She is the only popular Republican I can think of. If the Christian conservatives win the battle for the soul of the party, she will have a bright future," said one party insider.

Palin isn't short of job offers. Right-wing cable TV shows have been scrambling to sign her up as a presenter, and back in Alaska she is currently considering a "mile high" list of interview requests.

The most intriguing suggestion as to what she will do next stems from the conviction and disgrace of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens. Convicted this month of graft, Stevens is likely to lose his senate seat. In that event, it is the job of the state governor to appoint a replacement senator. Would La Palin have the brass neck to appoint herself senator for her home state in time to gather some Senate experience before 2012? It's the latest theory doing the rounds, and with shops in Alaska selling out of 'Palin 2012' T-shirts, the feverish excitement this woman generates shows no sign of abating.

As for John McCain, this isn't the first time he has lost the presidency. In 2000, when George W Bush defeated him in the primaries, McCain emerged with his reputation enlarged, as one of the most popular politicians in the country. This time, after a gracious concession speech on election night, there are signs that McCain could slip back into a familiar political role as bipartisan maverick.

"There's a need for the old John McCain, a leader who worked in a bipartisan way," said Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer.

Matt Welch, McCain's biographer, said: "He'll enjoy going back to being a national uncle figure and working on his public image. He'll criticise the conservative base of the party. He'll write some books and go back to being on The Daily Show and Letterman and cracking jokes – often at his own expense."

McCain will only be in the Senate for two years. In his concession speech he offered Obama his full support and insiders predict the two may work together on restructuring the military and on Iraq.

"When I saw him speak," said one insider, "he seemed to be relieved that he no longer had to preside over a campaign which he at some level knew was less than fully honourable."

Whether the furiously competitive senator will slope off to his Sedona ranch to beat himself up for allowing his presidential campaign to go off in the wrong direction, only his family and closest allies will ever know.