Thai premier hopes election gamble will resolve crisis

Published on Sunday 2 April 2006 00:50

ELECTION workers fanned out across Thailand yesterday to set up polling stations for a general election which Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra hopes will strengthen his hand against critics seeking his resignation.

Thaksin is the telecoms millionaire who has been under intense pressure over his running of the Asian tourist paradise and who has gambled that an election will secure his mandate.

But the ballot has been thrown into turmoil by the decision of three opposition parties in parliament to stage an unprecedented boycott of today's elections, refusing to run candidates and urging people to cast a vote of abstention when they go to the polls. They hope that too few people will vote to allow Thaksin to form a new government.

The election comes after a period of political turmoil since late February when Thaksin called the election, three years ahead of schedule, in a bid to reaffirm his rule amid a rising tide of criticism. Almost daily anti-government protests have stoked anger against Thaksin in the capital, Bangkok.

But Thaksin, who spent yesterday morning relaxing by hitting golf balls at a driving range in a Bangkok suburb, encouraged Thais to exercise their right to vote. "After the election, everyone should turn and face each other," he said. "It's like a game, a sport. After the whistle is blown, the game is over and everyone has to shake hands."

His critics, however, say they will keep up the battle to force him out of office no matter what the results of the poll. In last year's election, Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai - Thai Love Thai - party won 377 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives. Even without the boycott, it was expected to again win comfortably, due to its popularity among Thailand's rural voters, who have benefited from Thaksin's social welfare programmes and other measures and form a majority of the electorate.

But Thaksin has said he will step down if his party receives less than half the votes cast - an outcome virtually no one assumes will happen.

The three opposition parties have joined hands with an alliance of anti-Thaksin activists who have been demanding Thaksin's resignation, accusing him of corruption and abuse of power. They have been staging frequent, large demonstrations in the Thai capital for more than a month.

They believe that if not all 500 seats in the House of Representatives are filled the constitution does not allow parliament to be convened, blocking the formation of a new government. In such a case, they hope that King Bhumibol Adulyadej will intervene to replace Thaksin.

Demonstrations by partisans of both sides turned increasingly aggressive last week. In the most violent confrontation so far, some 2,000 Thaksin supporters on Thursday night disrupted a rally in northern Thailand, hurling chairs and debris before taking over the stage where opposition Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was leading a meeting to promote the election boycott.

The street protests are scaring away the tourists on which the Thai economy depends. The Thai Tourism Authority, which oversees the country's biggest foreign exchange earner, says 65,000 people - most from Singapore and China - have aborted planned trips.

Thaksin's opponents say the country would spring back if he simply left politics. But he has vowed not to give in to "mob rule", as he calls the protests, noting he was elected by a landslide 19 million votes in 2005. However, he has complained about feeling old and tired, and hinted he may leave politics at an unspecified future date - possibly a face-saving move.

One prominent Thai businessman, Wasun Potipimpanon, said: "I think the premier is seeking a way out. Let's give him time to step down. Don't kick him out. Why don't we wait another couple of weeks, as he won't resign before the general election, as that would make him appear as if he had lost."

But another scenario suggests the opposition will simply run out of steam, the protesters will tire, and Thaksin will be in until his term expires in 2010.

Some academics believe, however, that if the status quo remains intact, Thailand will start to become ungovernable. "The prolonged stalemate cannot last indefinitely," said political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak. "Our policy-making apparatus has stalled. As long as Thaksin is forced to fight for his survival on a daily basis, he cannot be running Thailand."