Faith, hope and clarity: The secrets of Obama's success

Published on Wednesday 5 November 2008 21:10

FOR nearly 150 years, the Republican Party has honoured Abraham Lincoln, the first man to win the presidency carrying the Republican banner. Yesterday, however, Barack Obama carried every state won by the Great Emancipator himself in 1860. The "Party of Lincoln" is no more.

On the stump, Mr Obama frequently suggested that his was an "improbable" candidacy, and indeed it was. No matter how much the United States has changed in the 40 years since the assassination of Martin Luther King, few observers really thought that Mr Obama had a realistic shot at winning the presidency when he formally announced his candidacy on a cold February morning last year.

But there was a sense, too, in which Mr Obama co-opted another Republican icon this year. Just as Ronald Reagan promised that it could once again be "Morning in America", so Mr Obama inspired Americans to believe that they could put the traumas of the Bush years behind them.

His campaign slogans of "Yes We Can" and "Change we can believe in" were twin declarations of faith in the essential and eternal promise of American life.

In the same manner as Mr Reagan put a smile on American faces after the dreary years of the Carter presidency, so Mr Obama permitted Americans to feel better about themselves. Optimism and hope prevailed. An estimated 136.6 million Americans will have voted in this election, based on 88 per cent of the country's precincts tallied and projections for absentee ballots, according to Michael McDonald, of George Mason University.

That would give 2008 a 64.1 per cent turnout rate, the highest since 65.7 per cent 100 years ago.

It was clear during the Democratic primaries that Mr Obama had constructed a formidable organisation that out-thought and, in the end, out-fought, Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Mr Obama's coalition relied on the young voters, African-Americans and college-educated Democrats.

Mrs Clinton, by contrast, relied on women and working-class white voters. In many respects the Democratic primary was a demographic battle.

Mr Obama prevailed, because in the end voters preferred his promise of "change" to Mrs Clinton's "experience".

The presidential election followed a similar pattern. Exit polls suggested that six in ten voters thought the Republican candidate, John McCain, was more experienced and thus, in a sense, more qualified to be president.

Many of those voters nevertheless chose Mr Obama, believing that "change" was more important, at this moment in American history, than "experience".

The much-vaunted "Bradley effect" – the theory that white voters would tell pollsters they intended to vote for a black candidate only to change their minds once they were in the polling booth – proved to be a chimera.

One in five voters said race was a factor in their decision, but most of those voters chose Mr Obama. In part that reflected black voters' enthusiasm, but it also testified to the extent to which Mr Obama was able to inspire moderate white voters.

Increased African-American turnout clearly helped Mr Obama, but his cause was assisted by Americans' economic fears. The economy, not foreign policy, proved the most significant election issue. In states such as Ohio, which has bled manufacturing jobs, and Florida, where property prices have plummeted, Mr McCain's perceived loyalty to George Bush's legacy was a major handicap.

Nor was the Republican helped by his grandstanding response to the financial crisis – he suspended his campaign to dash to Washington and forge a consensus-based "solution", only to find himself a bit-part player on a stage dominated by the Treasury secretary, Hank Paulson. Mr McCain's bluster was in contrast to Mr Obama's more measured, considered response.

Mr Obama out-performed both previous Democratic candidates, John Kerry and Al Gore, among working-class white voters and non-college-educated whites. The Democratic candidate also reversed the gains Mr Bush had made among Hispanic voters four years ago.

His multi-coloured coalition pinned the Republicans into a corner, requiring Mr McCain to do even better among white voters than Mr Bush had.

That was a bar he could not clear. Throughout the campaign, Democrats were more enthused by their candidate than Republicans were by Mr McCain.

Four years ago, Mr Bush prevailed in states such as Florida thanks to support from the "security moms", who were not convinced that Mr Kerry would be "tough enough" on terrorism.

Mr McCain did win the votes of those Americans most motivated by fears of terrorism but, alas for him, that constituted just 10 per cent of the electorate.

Exhausted by the war in Iraq, most voters were disinclined to give Mr McCain credit for his early, trenchant and, at the time, unpopular support for increasing troop numbers in Iraq. That the so-called surge appears to have proved irrelevant.

Foreign policy – notionally Mr McCain's trump card – was not a determining factor in voting for the next US president.

Nor was the Republican candidate helped by his choice of running-mate.

Though Sarah Palin enthused many conservative activists, 60 per cent of voters considered her unqualified to be president, should she be required to take to the reins.

Furthermore, her nomination undermined Mr McCain's claims to be the more experienced, prudent candidate. Her selection proved to be a gamble that did not pay off.

Instead, Mr Obama made major gains in once reliably Republican suburbs.

His victory in Virginia, for instance, was predicated on mobilising Democrats in the affluent suburbs of Washington DC more effectively than Mr Kerry was able to four years ago.

Mr Obama was the first Democrat to carry Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964.

Equally, he out-performed previous Democrats in rural areas of Pennsylvania and Ohio, fighting Mr McCain to a draw there, while massively increasing turnout in major cities.

Americans also voted in record numbers. The multi-faceted Democratic coalition – often more vulnerable to fragmentation than the Republican base – proved solid and sufficiently cohesive this time.

Mr Obama was also able to capitalise on demographic trends that ran in his favour: the US is an increasingly multi-cultural, multi-coloured, educated nation.

Equally, as time passes there are fewer voters who recall, let alone sympathise with, the racial divisions of the past. Mr Obama's predicted narrow victory in North Carolina testified to that. The South has changed, too.

Above all, however, Mr McCain found himself trapped on the wrong side of history.

Just as Mr Obama persuaded Democrats that he represented the future while Mrs Clinton embodied the past, so, too, did he convince the general election voters that this was a moment for the US to look ahead, not back.

As Mr Obama put it, in his typically eloquent victory speech, "If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible… who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer."

Election in Brief

Voters call halt to gay marriages

VOTERS put a stop to same-sex marriage in California yesterday, dealing a crushing defeat to gay-rights activists in a state they hoped would be in the vanguard, and putting in doubt as many as 18,000 same-sex marriages carried out since a court ruling made them legal this year.

Bogus texts tried to deter voters

BARACK Obama supporters in several states received bogus text messages or e-mails urging them to put off voting until yesterday because of long queues. It happened in many places, including the battleground states of Florida, Virginia and Missouri.

First with the news – by 11 days

NEW Mexico Sun readers must be wondering what all the fuss is about. As far as they are concerned, the election ended 11 days ago when the paper splashed the headline: "Obama Wins!" It's a bi-monthly and its next edition is later this week, so the editor took a leap of faith.

These Irish eyes are smiling

A SMALL Irish village is getting ready for an official visit from Barack Obama. He has already signalled his desire to see his ancestral home in Moneygall, County Offaly (population: 299), and his US presidential triumph sent jubilant locals into a tailspin.

Dimbleby gets himself Gored

DAVID Dimbleby clashed with the author Gore Vidal during the BBC's coverage. Pressing Vidal on comments he had made relating to alleged dirty tricks by the Republicans, the writer demurred, stating: "I hinted at that… I thought you would take the hint and not as a statement of reality."

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• 'Skinny kid with funny name' who'll lead the free world

• Hail to the chief – but not every nation is won over

• Analysis: Now the blame game begins for Republicans

• Black history: from slave plantation to president

• Quarantine over for 'foot-in-mouth' Joe

• The speech in full: Yes we can … the three little words that inspired a nation

• Michelle Obama: First among equals