Inside Holyrood - Election that no-one cares about is the one that matters the most

Published on Sunday 3 August 2008 22:25

AMID all the excitement of the summer with political earthquakes in Glasgow, the final demise of Wendy Alexander's painful leadership of Scottish Labour and the subsequent struggle to succeed her, one story appears to have been almost unnoticed.

It is the forgotten election and – in case you need reminding – it is the one to replace Nicol Stephen as leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

Some – mainly the Tories and Nationalists – are saying that the fact that nobody is taking notice of this three-way contest means that the Liberal Democrats are simply irrelevant now. Their polling in Scotland is currently 13 per cent at best and they do not hold the balance of power in Holyrood, so nobody cares.

All of which is true to a certain extent. And it was rather summed up by one of the contenders' ill-conceived attempt to launch his campaign. For reasons known to himself, Ross Finnie decided to do it the morning after the Glasgow East by-election when really there was only one story in town.

But this contest between Mr Finnie, Tavish Scott and Mike Rumbles could be hugely important and should not be under-estimated. If, as many people are predicting, the SNP wins a by-election in Motherwell and Wishaw next year when Labour's Jack McConnell heads to Malawi to take up the post of High Commissioner, then the Liberal Democrats would have the numbers to be Holyrood's power brokers again.

This would make it likely that a form of local income tax would replace the council tax. If Mr Rumbles were in charge it would make a referendum on independence and a push to at least devolution – or Home Rule – a much more realistic prospect than it is now.

And, as with the Labour leadership contest, this one is turning out to be too close to call. Mr Scott is the front-runner and safe pair of hands. But many in the party question whether a safe pair of hands is what is needed. They still blame him for last year's failed Holyrood election, when he was campaign manager, and are angry that he, apparently, unilaterally ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

Mr Finnie has gravitas (as well as the deepest voice in British politics) and some big-hitting supporters, including Lord David Steel. But some wonder if he appears too old and may have the Sir Menzies Campbell problem.

Mr Rumbles was once perceived as the outsider and firebrand. But his manifesto makes him the only one to lay out an distinctive vision for the party. Over the weekend, a senior party member told me that members were genuinely unsure who to back, but Mr Rumbles' manifesto was pulling support away from Mr Scott.

Ballot papers arrived with the party's 7,000 members on Friday and voting has already started. The winner will be announced on 26 August. It may be more interesting than many people think.