Inside Politics: With time on his side, Alex Salmond is certainly in no rush to play the referendum dating game

Published on Wednesday 1 June 2011 23:01

PREDICTING what happens in politics is a mug's game. But quite enjoyable all the same.

Alex Salmond opened the door for speculation during last month's election campaign with his Augustinian declaration on independence: yes, he was tempted to hold a referendum, but just not quite yet. So guessing when the referendum might be is now one of Scottish politics' favourite parlour games.

All we have to go on so far is that the referendum will be, in Salmond's words, "in the latter stages of the second half of the term". The calculation within the party appears to have been that with polls showing voters wouldn't go for independence, they need time to build up support. That means 2014 or 2015 come into play.

While we may not know what Salmond's plans are, we at least know how his strategically astute brain works. A veteran of British politics for more than 25 years, the First Minister has the nous and breadth of experience to understand how the shifting sands of politics, economics and culture can alter public opinion. In 2006, prior to even being elected to the Scottish Parliament, Salmond could be heard ruminating on how Labour's likely defeat in the then distant 2010 General Election might impact on support for Scottish independence. We can assume with confidence, therefore, he will be assessing his astrological charts to see when the stars juxtapose most advantageously for the cause of independence.

Next summer will have been ruled out immediately, for example. All being well, Scottish athletes will be being cheered along Princes Street, holding aloft their Union Flags, having won Gold for Great Britain at the London Olympics. That backdrop would not be ideal timing to hold a referendum on Scottish independence. Wait two years, however, when Scotland is hosting the Ryder Cup and the Commonwealth Games (when the UK nations compete separately), and the symbolism changes markedly. Furthermore, political gossips add, what if Scotland manages to qualify for the World Cup finals, which climax in Rio de Janeiro in the summer of 2014.

Some Nationalist figures have speculated it will all be over before then (the referendum campaign, not Scotland's qualification for the World Cup). Pencil in 24 June, 2014, the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, when stocks in independence will soar in a Braveheart bubble.

But this observer's hunch is that Salmond will wait longer – until late 2015. One date that we do all know about – unless the Lib-Con pact collapses – is 5 May, 2015, when the UK goes to the polls for a general election. On current betting, that election will return David Cameron to power, this time with a Conservative majority. And, if it does, the issue of the lack of a Tory mandate for Scotland (assuming that the Scots Tories again fail to make inroads) returns with a vengeance. Salmond will be able to offer a sovereign nation as a way out.