Inside Home Affairs: Heading for recession – and the crime wave that goes with it

Published on Tuesday 18 November 2008 21:22

NOW that people increasingly feel they cannot afford that new HD TV or hi-fi, will they be more likely to steal it?

That is the question senior police officers are asking themselves as the economic downturn starts to bite in Scotland.

After several years of declining crime rates, there are some indications the tide may be turning as recession triggers an increase in shoplifting, housebreaking, fraud and other "dishonesty" offences.

Last week, a report from Lothian and Borders Police showed a 9 per cent increase in crimes of dishonesty, year on year, for the three months ending 30 September.

Tom Halpin, the force's acting chief constable, said he was "very alert to the possibility that the current financial climate could have had an effect on the level of crime".

A 9 per cent increase means more than 1,500 more crimes were committed in the force area in one quarter.

Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, recently warned violent crime could grow by nearly a fifth – a prediction based on what happened during the 1991-2 recession.

The Home Office has singled out attacks on immigrants, who may be blamed for "stealing jobs", as a particular concern.

It appears, however, that a credit-crunch crime wave has yet to hit us.

The Scotsman has learned that, since April, crimes of dishonesty have fallen in at least four of Scotland's eight police force areas – Grampian, Fife, Central Scotland and Dumfries and Galloway.

However, most experts are in agreement: crime rates will increase as the recession deepens.

And one leading academic told me: "We are likely to see rates of imprisonment rise as unemployment rises.

"Courts tend to favour custodial sentences because unemployment people will have more free time and therefore be more inclined to commit further offences."

A rise in white-collar crime is also predicted, as tens of thousands of middle-class workers face redundancy.

The picture appears to be bleak indeed.