Iain Gray under fire after poor show in new poll

Published on Saturday 23 April 2011 18:14

IAIN GRAY's leadership of Scottish Labour's election campaign was under attack by his own allies last night as an exclusive poll revealed his party is now haemorrhaging support to the SNP ahead of the Scottish election in 11 days.

The Scotland on Sunday/YouGov poll shows that the SNP's constituency lead over Labour has rocketed from 3 per cent to 13 per cent in the space of just a week, suggesting Gray's hopes of succeeding Alex Salmond as First Minister are receding further. The SNP's lead over Labour on the regional list vote has also snowballed, from 2 per cent last week to 10 per cent now.

The poll indicates the Nationalists and Greens together could have a majority at the Scottish Parliament, enabling Salmond to push through the historic referendum on Scottish independence which both parties support.

With Gray desperately seeking to stem the flow towards the SNP, he will turn up his attacks on Salmond this weekend, accusing him of being a "fantasy" politician whose promises cannot be trusted.

But senior Labour figures in Scotland are questioning the approach of the campaign so far, which has seen Labour focus largely on the cutbacks being imposed by David Cameron's Conservative-led coalition at Westminster.

Lord Foulkes, who backed Gray for leader of the Scottish party, said: "Iain Gray has been too much of a gentleman. He has been playing by the Marquess of Queensberry rules, but Salmond has been hitting him below the belt again and again."

Holyrood 2011 coverage in full

• Iain Gray under fire after poor show in new poll

• Eddie Barnes: concerns of leaking support in once-solid constituencies is a measure of the task facing Iain Gray

• Kenny Farquharson: What Labour needs is some six appeal

• Aidan Smith: Annabel Goldie risks becoming a national institution, despite her politics

• Target voters: OAPs

• John Curtice: The OAP vote

• Peter Ross: Socialists who go it alone

He added: "It's as if two people are playing a different game. One is playing by the rules and the other is involved in an all-in, freestyle wrestling match. He felt people would see through Salmond, but they don't unless you point it out."

The new YouGov poll today reveals yet another dramatic shift in popular support just two months after Labour held a commanding lead over the Nationalists ahead of the 5 May poll.

The SNP is now put at 45 per cent on the constituency vote, up 5 per cent from a week before. Labour is on 32 per cent, down 5 per cent. The Conservatives drop one point to 10 per cent, while the LibDems remain on 8 per cent.

Similarly, on the regional list vote, the SNP is on 39 per cent, up 4 per cent on the previous week. Labour is now on 29 per cent, down 4 per cent. The Tories and LibDems stay level on 12 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, with the Greens now matching the LibDems, also on 7 per cent.

Support for the SNP on both the constituency and regional vote is now running at record levels on YouGov polls. By contrast, Labour's support is now back to where it was this time last year, prior to the UK General Election.

Translated into seats, such a result would give the SNP 61 seats, 14 more than it has at present.Labour would receive 42 seats, down four.

The Tories are estimated to win 11 seats, and the LibDems seven, but more focus will turn to the Green party, with calculations suggesting it would win eight seats on such a showing.

With such a result, Salmond could rely on Green support to gain a parliamentary majority for his referendum, although with minority government his preferred option, he would be likely to shun a full coalition deal with the Greens.

Tomorrow, Gray will seek to find "clear red water" between Labour and the SNP by contrasting his own policies on issues such as cancer waiting times and teacher numbers. Stepping up the personal attacks on Salmond, he will criticise the First Minister personally for over-promising. He will say: "Listening to this man is like watching Tomorrow's World in the 1970s when we were all promised jetpacks - just like we were promised all student debt would be scrapped, teacher numbers would be maintained, and our school building programme would be matched. The relationship between his supposed record and reality is as strangers passing in the night."