Iain Gray insists he has no fears of losing his seat

Published on Friday 22 April 2011 19:08

THE Labour leader Iain Gray yesterday claimed he was not worried by predictions he could lose his East Lothian seat despite a poll suggesting he would fail to make it back to Holyrood.

Mr Gray was reacting to a poll published earlier this week forecasting that Labour's slide was so severe that Mr Gray would suffer the humiliation of defeat in his own backyard.

Labour claimed suggestions that their leader would struggle to hold on to East Lothian were "nonsense" while the SNP said they would "redouble" their efforts to take a "winnable" seat .

Taking part in an a webchat on the scotsman.com website yesterday, the Labour leader was asked if he was "personally worried" about losing his constituency seat.

"No," Mr Gray replied. "I believe I have worked hard over four years to represent my constituents and their concerns," he said. "It is a great privilege to represent what you will forgive me for thinking is the best part of Scotland and I do not take that honour for granted."

Earlier this week, an Ipsos Mori poll put Labour 11 points behind the SNP on the constituency vote, 34 per cent to 45 per cent, and ten points behind on the regional list vote, 32 per cent to 42 per cent.

According to the poll, SNP support on the constituency vote has soared by 12 percentage points from the party's position during the 2007 election, while Labour had increased by just two percentage points.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said: "There has effectively been a 5 per cent swing from Labour to the SNP and Iain Gray's seat goes on a 3 per cent swing."

Holyrood 2011 coverage in full

• Iain Gray insists he has no fears of losing his seat

• Gerry Hassan: Time to get real on what we mean by independence

• Tommy Sheridan's jailing has 'helped his party's chances' for Holyrood

• Alex Salmond pledges scholarships for children of military killed in action

• Sir Menzies Campbell banks on job creation

• 'Builders back mortgage plan'

• Plan for criminals to fund victim services

• Election diary: Watch out - he's got a bun

• Election diary: Not-so-big cheese defects to the SNP

Should the Labour leader lose the redrawn East Lothian seat, which he won with a 2,448 majority over the SNP in 2007, it would be the second time that Mr Gray has failed to make it back to Holyrood.

In the 2003 elections, he lost the Edinburgh Pentlands seat to the then Conservative leader David McLetchie. Professor Curtice said: "What's true about last week's MORI poll is that Iain Gray is apparently not only suffering the indignity of losing the race to be First Minister, but he is also at risk of suffering the ignominy of losing his seat as an MSP for the second time in his political career.

"The first would be detrimental to his prospects of remaining leader, the second would prove detrimental to his prospects of remaining a politician."

If the poll's predictions are accurate, three other members of Labour's front-bench would lose their seats. Andy Kerr would lose East Kilbride.

• Live webchat: Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie will be online on Wednesday at 12:30pm. You can submit your questions beforehand or during the event. Click here to set a reminder.

• All the latest news, comment and analysis

• Who is standing in your area? Find out on our Scottish Election Map

• Visit The Steamie, our Scottish politics blog

• Election update: a daily briefing of the main stories from the campaign trail

• Follow our election coverage on Twitter and Facebook

Pauline McNeill would be defeated in Glasgow Kelvin and Jackie Baillie would lose Dumbarton.

Like Mr Gray, none of them is on Labour's list for the second vote, so defeat in the constituency means that they would fail to return to parliament.

Another shadow cabinet member, Sarah Boyack, would lose Edinburgh Central if the Ipsos Mori proved accurate. Unlike her colleagues, however, Ms Boyack has the safety net of being on the Lothians list.

In contrast, key SNP figures such as Nicola Sturgeon, Kenny MacAskill and Michael Russell, who face tough battles in marginal constituencies, are on the Nationalists' list. That means that they are likely to be returned, even if the SNP defies the polls and manages to lose the election.

"There are a whole load of constituencies that Labour held on to with narrow majorities. If the SNP vote goes up at all, Lab-our start to go down like ninepins," Professor Curtice said.

The departure of such a sizeable chunk of Labour's front- bench would raise difficult questions about who would replace Mr Gray, assuming that he would be forced to step down following such a disastrous result. Both Mr Kerr and Ms Baillie have been tipped as possible successors.

Yesterday, the SNP candidate for East Lothian, Dave Berry, said: "Whilst our canvass records and this remarkable poll make East Lothian a winnable seat for the SNP, we are taking nothing for granted and redoubling our efforts to win the seat."

But Mr Berry's view was disputed by Labour campaigners on the ground. Willie Innes, the leader of the Labour group on East Lothian council, said: "Quite honestly, this is just ridiculous. There is absolutely no chance of this happening. Dave Berry is saying that he's getting a warm reception, but that's certainly not what we've been finding. We have been doing a lot more canvassing. I think it is just bravado from the SNP."