Homecoming jobs boost was 'overestimated'

Published on Wednesday 8 September 2010 16:16

THE number of jobs created through the year-long Homecoming celebrations was overestimated by about 70 per cent, according to a study today.

• A publicity poster for last year's Homecoming celebrations

An independent review of last year's events found the initial research was based on out-dated models and "substantially overestimated" the impact.

The new findings also showed public sector support may have been 3 million more than previously stated.

Tourism agency VisitScotland had commissioned Ekos to review the cultural celebrations, which marked the 250th anniversary of Robert Burns' birth.

But Holyrood's Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee decided to hire consultant Dr Geoff Riddington, director of Grid Economics, to evaluate the Scottish Government's own findings after concerns of a lack of analysis.

Dr Riddington also looked at the impact of The Gathering, the showpiece event in Edinburgh. It was given a 180,000 loan from the Government which was later written off.

Assessing Ekos's economic modelling, he said it was "out-of-date and incorrect and substantially overestimates the actual impact".

The number of jobs generated by Homecoming is "probably no more than 900", compared to the 1,536 previously estimated.

He also found "confusion" in terms used by Ekos which he said suggested a direct measure of economic activity.

In a critique of the research by Ekos, Dr Riddington said the firm's finding that 72,000 additional visitors came as a result of Homecoming is "accurate and robust". He also found that the additional expenditure in Scotland of 31.6 million is "realistic and robust".

But Dr Riddington said Ekos has double-counted organisers' expenditure in The Gathering review, leading to an overestimate of expenditure with that event.

Presenting local analysis for The Gathering in Edinburgh was described as "fundamentally misleading", if a visitor's trip went wider across the country.

The reported public sector budget underpinning the campaign was 5.5 million. But Dr Riddington argued that an additional 3 million from VisitScotland and VisitBritain promotional campaigns should have been included, bringing the total to 8.5 million.

He concluded: "In the author's view, an independent body such as Audit Scotland may well be more appropriate to conduct such evaluations given that they would have no other policy interest in the success or otherwise of a programme such as Homecoming Scotland 2009."

Despite the criticism, Dr Riddington said Ekos followed their methodology in a "highly-professional manner".

A Scottish Government spokesman said: "The success of Homecoming Scotland 2009 is clear - it delivered 53.7 million to Scotland's economy, representing a return of almost 10:1 on the core investment of 5.5 million.

"Homecoming delivered 22 per cent above the target of 44 million set at the outset of the year.

"These figures come from a report produced by Ekos, a leading independent UK consultancy specialising in economic and social development.

"The targets and methodology used to evaluate Homecoming were communicated throughout 2008 and 2009, and follow standards used extensively by the national and international events and tourism industries."