Holyrood 'winners' may be denied power

Published on Saturday 12 February 2011 12:59

SCOTLAND'S two leading political parties are being warned that they risk being thrown into opposition if they attempt to form a minority government after May's Holyrood elections.

Senior Tory and Lib Dem sources say neither the SNP nor Labour can simply assume they can claim power after May if they win the biggest number of seats.

They will instead have to negotiate with the lesser parties in a Westminster-style coalition if they want to form a new government.

The sources were speaking after Alex Salmond's declaration that he would "prefer" another four years of minority rule if the SNP becomes the largest party in May, but fails to win a majority. Labour MSPs have also talked up the prospect of running a minority administration if, as polls suggest, they become the biggest party in Scotland at the election.

One senior Conservative source said last night: "In a proportional parliament it is about the combinations of seats that counts. Neither the SNP nor Labour can claim the moral high ground by claiming the winner takes all in Scottish politics. Both of them were prepared for the loser to take all at Westminster."

Asked if the biggest party in May could not be guaranteed power afterwards, a leading Lib Dem MSP said: "That's absolutely right. The largest party has got the first go at it but it doesn't give them the mandate that an overall majority would."

Senior parliamentary officials have also confirmed that there "is nothing in law" which assures the largest party at a Holyrood election of forming a government.

After the 2007 Holyrood election, the SNP was able to form a minority administration because rival parties opted not to form a coalition to keep them out.

But sources in the Tory and Lib Dem camp have separately said there will be no assumption this time round that "winner takes all".

While both parties accept the biggest party has a moral right to try first to form a government, sources in both camps say this would not stop them talking to the second-placed party as well in order to boost their negotiating power.

Their positioning will add to speculation that Scotland could be run by a "coalition of the losers" after the election. On current polling, which sees Labour way ahead of the SNP, that would most likely involve an informal deal between the Nationalists, the Tories and the Lib Dems.

However, the Conservatives and Lib Dems have a major task to stay in the game after the election amid signs they are leaking support in Scotland as a result of the unpopularity of their coalition pact at Westminster.

The jockeying for position ahead of the 5 May vote has intensified since last week's Scottish budget vote. The SNP managed to push its financial plans through having won support from both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. Labour voted against.Tory sources say Labour and the SNP have both conceded the point in recent years that there is no moral right for the leading party to simply assume power is theirs.

After the 2007 Scottish election, when the SNP won the most seats, Gordon Brown, then Prime Minister, sought to secure a deal between Labour and the Lib Dems. Then, at last year's Westminster vote, Labour entered talks with the Lib Dems about a possible deal. At the time, Salmond backed the talks, saying an informal coalition of Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru would be a "progressive alliance" at Westminster.

Most figures do acknowledge that if one of the parties comes within touching distance of a full majority in May, or has a significant lead over its nearest rival, it would be politically impossible to deny them power.

But they say that if the result is close, there is the expectation that parallel talks will take place, as happened at Westminster last year.