Worst week yet for swine flu, with new cases running at 2,000 a day

Published on Thursday 1 October 2009 22:18

THE swine flu virus claimed a tenth Scottish victim last night as official figures revealed that the number of cases in Scotland has doubled to 13,800 over the past week.

The Scottish Government confirmed a 62-year-old woman from Forth Valley had become the latest patient to die after contracting the virus at the end of a week that saw the most dramatic rise in cases since the UK outbreak began in April.

Experts warned the illness will spread as the virus takes a stronger hold in winter.

Shortly after revealing that the number of H1N1 cases had risen from 7,000 to 13,800, Health secretary Nicola Sturgeon announced that the Scottish death toll had risen to ten.

Ms Sturgeon also announced that the main swine flu vaccine, manufactured by GSK, had now been licensed by the European Commission and it was hoped that it would be made available to high-risk groups by the middle of October.

Yesterday's results showed a 7 per cent increase in GP consultations for flu-like illnesses over the last week.

But the number of those samples that tested positive for swine flu increased from 17.6 per cent to 34.1 per cent.

"The percentage of people with flu-like symptoms who actually have the H1N1 virus strain has increased significantly over the past week," Ms Sturgeon said.

"That's the kind of step change in positivity that you often see with seasonal flu before you see quite a significant increase in flu cases."

Scotland's Chief Medical Officer Harry Burns also suggested that the rate of swine flu increase could escalate.

Dr Burns said: "The fact that we have seen an increase of the positive samples gives us some sense that we may be about to see an increasing rate of spread, but it is too early to tell.

"The number of people testing positive is because the virus is circulating much more rapidly in the community, it is a significant sign that this H1N1 virus is filling a kind of ecological niche.

"As we move into winter we would normally expect other flu viruses to take hold, they don't appear to be around just now and it is H1N1 that has filled that space."

According to the Scottish Government, the level of flu-type illnesses currently being experienced during the swine flu pandemic are "comparable" to levels of the normal seasonal flu.

But the swine flu outbreak had ensured that the normal fall in flu-type illnesses associated with the summer did not happen this year.

The government launches its annual seasonal flu vaccination campaign on Monday. Dr Burns emphasised that it was vital that those who were at risk from seasonal flu, such as the elderly, continued to take the vaccine.

Equally, it was important that younger people, who appeared to be at risk from swine flu, were also vaccinated against it.

Without the protection offered by the swine flu vaccine, officials have estimated that up to 30 per cent of the population could get the virus.

Experts were still deciding how the vaccine would be distributed once the priority groups had been dealt with.

As another precaution, UK health ministers have agreed to double the number of state-of-the-art ECMO facilities that deal with people with severe respiratory problems that are on offer in Leicester.

The so-called Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxgenation facilities are based at Glenfield Hospital in the English Midlands and they treat patients with serious breathing difficulties by circulating blood outside the body and artificially adding oxygen.

A Scottish swine flu patient from Lanarkshire has recently been sent there for treatment, but is now back in Glasgow.