Three more deaths but swine flu may be easing after 42% fall in new cases

Published on Thursday 3 December 2009 21:30

NEW cases of swine flu in Scotland fell 42 per cent in the past week, raising hopes that the worst of the second phase is over.

• Picture: PA

However, the virus has also claimed three more lives, including a child.

Health secretary Nicola Sturgeon described the latest figures as "encouraging" and said she was hopeful that the downward trend would continue as more people were vaccinated against H1N1.

In England, where there was a similar drop in swine flu cases last week, Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said there was "a striking reduction" in the incidence of swine flu in young children, but warned it was too early to claim victory in the fight against the virus.

Despite the falling numbers, the World Health Organisation's leading swine flu expert, Keiji Fukuda, has warned that a third wave of the pandemic might come in the new year.

Mr Fukuda said: "I think it's fair to say that we still haven't fully gotten through the pandemic and that it is possible there could be unexpected events which occur into next year."

The warning was made at a meeting in Geneva of swine flu experts from across the globe.

The WHO and its advisory committees are gathering scientific data to assess the possible end of the pandemic. But Mr Fukuda said: "I think it's a little bit early to begin those discussions now, because we are still in a period where some countries are still increasing in terms of infections, though in some countries it looks like infections and cases are going down."

It is estimated that 12,300 people across Scotland contracted swine flu in the past week – a fall of 42 per cent from the previous seven days.

However, the latest deaths announced this week brought the total number of H1N1 fatalities in Scotland to 54. Ms Sturgeon said: "The past couple of weeks, and the tragic death of this child today, have proven how dangerous the illness can be."

The child, who had underlying health conditions, was being treated by medical staff in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area.

The Scottish Government also announced that an adult being treated by NHS Lanarkshire, who had no underlying health conditions, and an older person being treated by NHS Lothian, who did have existing medical problems, had died after contracting swine flu.

Ms Sturgeon said: "As we see more people come forward for vaccination, we should witness a further impact on the numbers of cases across Scotland.

"However, we will wait to see that this trend continues over the coming weeks."

The United Nations agency declared a full-blown pandemic – at six on its six-point scale – under way on June 11. The flu strain has caused at least 7,826 deaths worldwide.