Swine flu: 'No explanation' for cluster of cases in Scotland

Published on Thursday 4 June 2009 11:55

HEALTH experts said today there is no evidence to explain why Scotland is being hit harder by swine flu than the rest of the UK.

Four people with the virus remain in intensive care in the Glasgow area and 84 other people have been confirmed with swine flu.

The count is significantly higher per head of population than the rest of the country but bacteriology expert Hugh Pennington said the clustering of cases mirrored that seen in other countries such as the US.

Professor Pennington, of Aberdeen University, said: "I don't think there are any particular reasons that we can say why Scotland is in the frame.

"In the States the spread is uneven, there are places such as Wisconsin where you wouldn't expect it to be so prevalent as it is – it being further from the Mexican border.

"It is just the way you expect a virus to behave – it's not evenly distributed and it's more common in some parts of the country than others."

Now a total of 404 people in the UK have the H1N1 virus – 313 are in England, 88 in Scotland, two in Northern Ireland and one in Wales.

Three people – two woman aged 23 and 38 and a 45-year-old man – are in intensive care at the Royal Alexandra Hospital, Paisley.

A 37-year-old man is also in a critical but stable condition in Glasgow's Victoria Infirmary.

Three of the four patients have an underlying health condition.

Lifestyle factors can be considered when assessing the impact of swine flu in Scotland, according to the professor.

"In Mexico one of the factors mentioned was that there are a lot of heavy smokers there," Prof Pennington said.

"It may be a factor but it's too early to say.

"One has to have more information before we can make any conclusions."

The World Health Organisation said earlier this week that it is getting closer to declaring a full-blown pandemic of the virus.

A total of 19,273 people across 66 countries have swine flu, according to the latest figures.

And as of yesterday, 117 people have been killed by the virus.

Professor John Oxford, of the centre for infectious disease at St Bartholomew's Hospital in London, said as many as 20,000 people in the UK may catch swine flu.

He said it is "pretty unfortunate" that four people in Scotland are in intensive care with the virus but that figures remained relatively low across the country.

The professor told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme: "All the indications are that this is very mild, that's the good news.

"I would still go along with that estimate – up to 10,000, 15,000 or 20,000 – but a lot of them are mild."