Swine flu cases 'could top 100,000 a day'

Published on Thursday 2 July 2009 13:57

THE number of swine flu cases could reach more than 100,000 per day by the end of next month, Health Secretary Andy Burnham told the Commons today.

The UK has moved past the stage of containing the swine flu outbreak and into the "treatment phase", he said.

"We have reached the next stage in management of the disease," Mr Burnham said.

"The national focus will be on treating the increasing numbers affected by swine flu.

"We will move to this treatment phase across the UK with immediate effect."

There are now 7,447 laboratory-confirmed cases in the UK, he said.

London and the West Midlands have already had sufficiently high numbers to move towards a policy of outbreak management, which saw people with swine flu clinically diagnosed rather than being confirmed by laboratory reports.

Mr Burnham said that last week saw a "considerable rise" in swine flu cases.

"There are now on average several hundred new cases every day," he said.

"Our efforts during the containment phase have given us precious time to learn more about the virus.

"We have always known it would be impossible to contain the virus indefinitely and at some point we would need to move away from containment to treatment."

He added: "We have now signed contracts to secure enough vaccine for the whole population."

The first will become available next month, with 60 million doses available by the end of the year.

Predicting the huge daily rise in new cases, Mr Burnham said: "Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August."

He added: "The pressure on the system is such that it is the right time to take this step."

"Scientists can expect to see rapid rises in the number of cases."

The Health Protection Agency will now take a step back from dealing with the outbreak.

The daily updates on confirmed cases will end and "more general" estimates of numbers will be given.

Efforts to trace people who have been in contact with swine flu cases will stop and schools will not need to close when hit by the virus, unless particular circumstances make it necessary.

Following the outbreak, "three people have sadly died", Mr Burnham noted, adding that they had underlying health problems.

There are three stages of swine flu management:

Containment: People with swine flu have their diagnosis confirmed by lab reports. They and anyone who has come into contact with them are given the antiviral drug Tamiflu. Most parts of the UK are still in this phase;

Outbreak management: People are diagnosed by a health professional without the need for lab confirmation, and are given Tamiflu. Swabbing takes place only on a small sample of cases. People who have come into contact with a swine flu victim are unlikely to receive Tamiflu as a precaution;

Treatment: The detail of this phase is still being worked out. The Government envisages that not everybody with swine flu will receive Tamiflu, which may be reserved for at-risk groups.

Tracing of contacts and treating people as a precaution stops. Pressure on GP services is eased as more people receive a diagnosis via other routes. The Government wants this phase to be adopted by the whole of the UK when it occurs.