Scottish swine flu deaths 'fewer than predicted'

Published on Thursday 3 September 2009 12:24

FEWER people will die from swine flu in Scotland than had earlier been predicted, it was announced today.

Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said the revised "worst case" assumptions indicate up to 0.1% of people who become ill may die – around 2000 people.

The previous estimate was 0.35%.

But as much as 30% of the population may still catch the H1N1 virus, unchanged from earlier assumptions.

Of those who become ill, 1% will require hospitalisation – revised down from 2%.

During "peak weeks" of a pandemic, sickness absence rates may reach 12% of the workforce.

Ms Sturgeon announced the UK-wide analysis in a statement to the Scottish Parliament, where she updated MSPs on vaccination plans and impact to schools after the summer break.

She said: "Let me stress that these assumptions do not yet take account of the impact of our vaccination programme.

"Furthermore, they are not predictions, they are assumptions that allow us to plan for the worst, while of course continuing to hope for the best.

"And while having lower estimates for hospitalised cases and fatalities is positive, these assumptions will be kept under review."

Ms Sturgeon said rates of infection "remain relatively low" in Scotland.

Updated figures today showed about 2,500 people contracted the virus in the past week – down from 3,300 the previous week.

Seven people who caught the virus have died in Scotland since it was first detected in spring.

Ms Sturgeon said the proposed vaccination programme – announced in August – is expected to begin in mid-October.

It will be available to priority vulnerable groups such as pregnant women and front-line health workers.

She said pupil and staff absence levels have been "at or below" normal levels since the new term started on August 17.

Ms Sturgeon added: "The potential threat from H1N1 does remain. Even if it remains, for most, a relatively mild virus, its effects on the health service and on the wider economy could be highly disruptive.

"That's why we continue to press ahead with prudent preparations for responding to the virus and also the impact of seasonal flu.

"I believe that we are in a strong position to cope with the peak in cases expected over the autumn and winter and we will continue to prepare in a way that neither exaggerates the threat, nor encourages complacency."

The revised planning document covers the 2009/10 seasonal flu season, which runs to mid-May next year.

The publication states that the worst case assumption does not take account of the possible effect of vaccination against a pandemic strain.