Scotland 'over the worst' of swine flu, expert says

Published on Thursday 23 July 2009 14:07

SCOTLAND may already be over the worst of the current phase of the swine flu pandemic, an expert said today.

Microbiologist Professor Hugh Pennington said there was a different pattern of the spread of the virus north and south of the border.

He said: "I think you could even say we are possibly through the worst of this particular phase of the virus, whereas down south they do seem to be having an increasing number of people calling GPs and calling the telephone lines in places outside the two areas where we know the virus is busy – London and the West Midlands."

Professor Pennington told BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland: "I think there is a concern down there that the virus is continuing to spread in way that it's not doing in Scotland."

He also cautioned against any plans to fast-track the introduction of a flu vaccine without first gathering enough material on its effectiveness.

"I think we have to look very carefully at any kind of plan to rush through the implementation of vaccination before we have the full results of testing in," he said.

He said the potential problem from fast-tracking was not one of safety but effectiveness.

"The real problem is do we know how good the vaccine is in terms of how many doses, whether it needs to be boosted by having harmless chemicals added to it to give a good immune response – these are the kind of things I would be concerned about if this vaccine was used without us having the full data on that," he said.

A national pandemic flu service is being launched in England today but Scotland has no immediate plans to follow suit.

Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said demands on NHS 24 and GPs from people worried about swine flu have not reached a level to justify such a service.

"We continue to closely monitor the situation and if demand grows over the next few months we have the ability to opt into this service at a later stage if needed," she said.

The Scottish service now deals with 500 callers a day who believe they have flu symptoms and provide pre-recorded advice to a similar number.

The assessment undertaken in this service is similar to the service beginning in England.

The Scottish Government said first vaccine deliveries may arrive in August but that did not mean vaccination would start immediately.

"The start point for the programme will need to take account of the licensing position and scientific advice about safety," said a spokeswoman.

"No vaccine will be used without scientific and medical advice indicating that it is safe to do so.

"Plans for the vaccination programme are still being finalised."

Unlike England, Scotland has no immediate plans to launch a national flu pandemic service, saying demand does not yet justify it.

And microbiologist Professor Hugh Pennington said Scotland could already be over the worst of the current phase of the pandemic.

He told BBC Radio Scotland: "I think you could even say we are possibly through the worst of this particular phase of the virus, whereas down south they do seem to be having an increasing number of people calling GPs and calling the telephone lines in places outside the two areas where we know the virus is busy – London and the West Midlands."

He also cautioned against any moves to fast-track the introduction of a flu vaccine without first gathering enough information.

Prof Pennington said the potential problem was not one of safety but effectiveness, saying: "The real problem is do we know how good the vaccine is in terms of how many doses, whether it needs to be boosted by having harmless chemicals added to it to give a good immune response? These are the kind of things I would be concerned about if this vaccine was used without us having the full data on that."

The Scottish Government said first vaccine deliveries may arrive in August but that did not mean vaccination would start immediately.

"The start point for the programme will need to take account of the licensing position and scientific advice about safety," said a spokeswoman.

Giving today's update, Scottish Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said the virus was continuing to circulate in Scotland but overall illness levels remained "relatively low".

She said: "It remains the case that, in the majority of confirmed H1N1 cases to date, the symptoms have been mild and recovery straightforward.

"Nonetheless, NHS Scotland is doing its utmost to ensure that anyone who may be at greater risk gets the help they need as quickly as possible."

She said that if demand grew, Scotland had the ability to opt into the national pandemic flu service.

"At present calls to the flu response service and NHS 24 of people who believe they have flu-like symptoms are averaging at around 2,000 per day," she said.