Nicola Sturgeon fears third wave of swine flu but take-up of jabs remains low

Published on Wednesday 23 December 2009 21:41

SCOTLAND could be hit by a third wave of swine flu in the first few months of 2010, the health secretary warned yesterday, as the death toll rose again.

• The government's awareness campaign was launched in late October this year. Picture: PA

Nicola Sturgeon said indications were that the second phase of the outbreak was "now in decline", with figures at the end of 2009 showing a drop-off in the estimated number of people catching the virus. Despite that, she stressed the importance of remaining vigilant.

Yesterday it emerged that an adult from the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde area had died after contracting H1N1, bringing the total number of swine flu deaths in Scotland to 57.

Despite the risks posed by swine flu, uptake among the at-risk groups offered vaccination so far has been low – at just 35 per cent.

The Scottish Government has said it did not set a target for uptake of the vaccine.

Yesterday, Ms Sturgeon said they continued to keep a close watch on situation.

"The last few weeks have seen a bit of a tail off in swine flu, and the experts would probably say we're over the peak of the second wave," she said.

But she added: "The planners in the NHS will have one eye on the possibility of a third wave at some point over the winter or into the spring."

She said the fact that "significant numbers of people" had now been vaccinated against the H1N1 form of the flu would help slow down its spread.

However she stressed: "We do have to remain vigilant.

"Historically, flu pandemics have come in three waves, so we have had two, we may well get a third in the early part of the year, we don't know.

"But what we do know is the more people we get vaccinated in the intervening period, the less of an impact any third wave will have."

Ms Sturgeon also told how the swine flu pandemic had made planning for the health service over the busy winter period "all the more important".

As part of their preparations for the winter months, NHS chiefs will have organised staff numbers and rotas to cope with any increase in demand.

Ms Sturgeon will also be monitoring how much pressure the health service is under throughout the festive period, examining figures such as those detailing the number of emergency admissions and the number of intensive care beds that are occupied at any time.

She said: "There's a plan in place, for example, to increase critical care capacity should we need to. All health boards have plans in place to substantially increase their critical care capacity if required.

"Across Scotland we would be able to double critical care capacity if it turned out that was required."

Ms Sturgeon said that the last time there was a major flu outbreak in Scotland, in the winter of 2001, the NHS had been "caught off guard".

But she added: "Since then winter planning has got a lot better."

She continued: "We don't know what's round the corner but what I am confident of is that the NHS has got the right plans in place, it's got the right people in place and its got experience of dealing with the unexpected.

"But we've always got to be on our guard, vigilant and ready for the unexpected."

Last week figures showed that around 7,970 people in Scotland contracted H1N1, down from 8,900 last week.

There have been 1,409 people with H1N1 admitted to hospital in Scotland since the start of the outbreak