Further Scottish swine flu case 'probable'

Published on Thursday 30 April 2009 13:33

A FURTHER "probable" case of swine flu has emerged in Scotland, First Minister Alex Salmond told MSPs today.

The new case in Glasgow is of someone with travel links to an affected area.

Further detailed testing is being carried out on the person to establish whether it is the full strain of the virus.

There are now 27 suspected cases in Scotland where people are showing symptoms, Mr Salmond said at First Minister's Questions.

Another 41 people – including 10 with close contacts to Britain's first confirmed victims Iain and Dawn Askham – have so far been cleared after showing symptoms.

MSPs were told a "probable" case was one that tested positive for Type A flu – but not yet for swine flu.

Mr Salmond updated MSPs when he faced questions from Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray.

The First Minister told MSPs that as of 10.30am there were still only two confirmed positive cases of swine flu.

"The last two tests of those who had been in contact with the confirmed cases have also been declared negative," he said.

"Two new possible cases of close contact have been identifed and one individual is being re-tested."

Mr Salmond went on: "Within the last 24 hours, a further 19 travel-related possible cases have been identified and 24 possible cases have been cleared by testing.

"There is also one travel-related cases, unrelated to the confirmed two cases, one in Glasgow, which we now consider as a probable case."

The First Minister said: "That means a total 27 suspected cases are now under investigation.

"It is a fast-moving situation but the summary as of now is that there remain two confirmed cases, there are 27 cases under investigation, and the total number of people who have been cleared by testing is 41."

Mr Gray went to ask about the timescale of testing, and the difference between a possible and "probable" case.

"Containment is serving us well – but at what point does that strategy have to move on?" asked Mr Gray.

Mr Salmond told him several tests could identify the virus.

Testing could take place at the West of Scotland specialist virology centre at Gartnavel in Glasgow, while final "reference lab" tests took place at Colindale in north London.

"The test that we can do first is to see if that person has Type A flu", said Mr Salmond.

"Clearly if that test proves negative, that can be done relatively quickly in a matter of hours, and that can be declared as a negative test.

"However if someone has Type A flu, it doesn't necessarily mean they have this particular strain of the virus."

That follow-up testing could take time – sometimes 48 hours or more.

The reason 41 people had been cleared was because the first test showed negative for Type A flu.

"A probable case is someone who has tested positive for Type A flu but where they still don't have the confirmation that they have the full strain of this virus, which can only be confirmed by the more detailed test that takes some time," said Mr Salmond.

Mr Gray then asked if the WHO upgrading of the alert to Level Five meant anti-viral drugs would be moved from central stockpiles to more local distribution points.

The First Minister told him: "That is now under way as part of our activation plan.

"We have stockpiles of two anti-viral drugs which have been demonstrated to be effective against this virus, to meet 50% of the Scottish population.

"That figure is now being increased across the UK."

There were also "substantial" Scottish stockpiles of other materials, like nine million surgical facemasks intended for medical staff treating suspected infections.

Mr Salmond went on to tell MSPs that because the two confirmed cases were identified quickly, the evidence gathered in Scotland has potential worldwide importance, as there was only "limited" information about clearly-identified cases.

"We cannot be absolutely certain about these things – there are two people still under investigation, one person is being re-tested." he said.

"But the very least we can say is the immediate effect of measures to interrupt the spread of the virus look to have been successful.

"We don't know if they are going to be totally successful until the final testing is completed.

"But the very least we can say is a substantial number of the close contacts of the two confirmed cases have already been cleared of the virus."

Mr Gray voiced hopes that the outbreak had been contained, and asked what plans were now being made for "wider civil contingencies" after the raising of the World Health Organization (WHO) alert level.