First among millions: all Scots may get swine flu jab

Published on Wednesday 21 October 2009 21:56

THE whole population could be offered the swine flu jab in the next six months, experts said yesterday, as the first vaccines were given to patients in Scotland.

The H1N1 vaccination campaign began in Glasgow yesterday, with NHS staff and at-risk patients in hospital being given the first jabs.

Scotland's chief medical officer Harry Burns said it was possible that after priority groups were vaccinated, the rest of the population could be offered the vaccine. If this happens, a third wave of the pandemic could potentially be avoided, he said.

The vaccination programme began as a 17th death linked to swine flu in Scotland was announced; a 58-year-old woman from the Borders with significant underlying health conditions.

Health secretary Nicola Sturgeon urged everyone invited by their GP to take up the vaccine offer to help avoid tragedies like the latest death.

It has been estimated that in a worst-case scenario, about 2,000 people in Scotland could die during the swine flu pandemic. This was revised down from earlier assumptions that the figure could hit 5,000.

The Scottish Government said these assumptions did not take into account the effects of vaccination which, depending on uptake, could significantly reduce deaths even further.

Yesterday, Dr Burns and Ms Sturgeon were at the new Victoria Hospital in Glasgow to see patient Adeline Miskelly become the first person in Scotland to receive the vaccine.

The 84-year-old, who is being treated on the hospital's rehabilitation ward, was given the jab alongside staff nurse Priscilla Carino. NHS staff are being urged to take up the vaccine.

Only about a fifth of NHS workers have the seasonal flu jab and surveys suggest some may also avoid the new jab.

A decision has yet to be taken on whether the vaccine will be offered to others outside the current priority groups, which include people with chronic health problems and pregnant women.

UK governments have ordered enough vaccine to cover the whole population. A decision on further priority groups will be taken at a UK level.

But Dr Burns said it was "not an unrealistic proposition" that the vaccine could be offered to everyone by next May.

He said a decision could be made within the next couple of weeks on future target groups.

This could include younger people who have been more heavily affected than those in older groups. Some research has suggested young women may be particularly vulnerable.

Supplies of the vaccine have started to arrive in Scotland, with batches set to increase in the coming weeks.

Dr Burns said the NHS expected to have a significant amount of vaccine available for the next phase of the campaign, at the start of December.

"I can't imagine that we wouldn't offer it to healthy people," he said.

"But you don't know what might evolve. It might just go away. That's unlikely; but genuinely we are watching an evolving situation."

Ms Sturgeon said it was "possible, perhaps even probable" that the vaccine would be extended to other groups, but a final decision had not yet been made.

Supplies of the vaccine have been distributed across Scotland. Next week, GPs will start inviting at-risk patients in for vaccination, with the hope of covering 1.3 million people by Christmas.

Dr Burns sought to reassure people who may have concerns about the safety of the vaccine.

Concerns have also been raised that the virus could mutate, making the current jab ineffective.

But virologist Professor Hugh Pennington said there was no evidence of that happening at the moment.

He said: "There is always the possibility that the virus may suddenly lurch and change. But it has shown absolutely no sign of doing that."

Prof Pennington also said that so-called herd immunity – where larger parts of the population are protected once a significant proportion of people are vaccinated – would not be gained in the first phase of the vaccination campaign.

"That is not really the aim. The aim of the exercise is to protect people."

Should my child have the vaccine?

Children in at-risk groups will be offered the vaccine. We encourage parents of these children to have them vaccinated. Swine flu seems to be affecting children and young adults in particular.

I am pregnant and worried about the effect the vaccine might have.

Pregnant women are four times as likely to develop serious complications from swine flu and four of five times more likely to require hospitalisation. Pregnant women would not normally be included in vaccination, but taking the evidence we have into consideration, we believe that pregnant women should be vaccinated.

What if I'm in a high-risk group and haven't heard from my doctor?

You won't have heard from your practice as they have not received supplies of vaccine yet so can't finalise dates for their vaccination clinics yet.

I think I have already had swine flu. Should I have the vaccine?

You should take the vaccine if it is offered. Many people who have been advised they have swine flu will not actually have had it, so it is important that they are vaccinated.

I have taken Tamiflu. Does that have any effect on the vaccine working?

People who have taken Tamiflu should still be vaccinated if they are in one of the at risk-groups or if they are a health or social care worker.

Do I still need to get my usual winter flu jab?

Yes. There is still some seasonal flu around, so take both vaccines if offered.

Is there going to be enough vaccine to cover everyone?

The government has ordered enough vaccine to vaccinate those who require it.

Could the virus mutate and mean that the vaccine is no longer effective?

One of the main worries doctors have is that the virus could mutate at some point. If it does, we will have to alter the vaccine to ensure that it is effective against any new virus that might develop.