First swine flu vaccines 'will be available next month'

Published on Wednesday 15 July 2009 22:12

THE UK governments yesterday insisted that the first vaccines for swine flu will start to arrive next month after experts cast doubt on the immunisation timetable.

The Scottish Government said Scotland remained at the front of the queue for vaccines, with Westminster saying the first supplies were due in August.

It followed comments by World Health Organisation (WHO) director general Dr Margaret Chan who said it could take two or three months before a vaccine was widely available, despite UK governments saying they expected supplies to start arriving next month.

"There's no vaccine," she said.

"One should be available soon, in August. But having a vaccine available is not the same as having a vaccine that has been proven safe.

"Clinical trial data will not be available for another two to three months."

Last week it emerged that it would be November 2010 before the whole Scottish population could be vaccinated against the H1N1 virus. But the first batches of vaccine were expected to arrive in August.

Officials are currently finalising who will get first priority for the vaccine, which is likely to include people with other health conditions, children and healthcare workers.

Yesterday Aberdeen-based microbiologist Professor Hugh Pennington also questioned the August delivery date for the first batches of vaccine.

"I was surprised when I heard the August timetable because they only had the vaccine seed virus in May," he said.

" You then have to go through the testing process for safety and efficacy. You can't do that in a week or two. You have to have volunteers and check for side effects and for the immune response. Then there are other processes to get enough of the vaccine.

"So I was surprised at August and I thought October was much more realistic."

But the Scottish Government said it was still expecting swine flu vaccine to arrive next month.

A spokeswoman said: "Scotland and UK are at the front of the queue internationally for a vaccine for H1N1.

"We have always said that the first vaccine deliveries may come in August, and for that reason we need to plan on the basis of being able to deliver a vaccine from August. "The advice from the WHO is consistent with this."

The spokeswoman added: "We are preparing rigorously to ensure that the service is ready whenever a vaccine arrives – but this does not necessarily mean that vaccination will commence immediately.

"The start point for the programme will need to take account of the licensing position and scientific advice about safety. No vaccine will be used without scientific and medical advice indicating that it is safe to do so."

Yesterday the Westminster government said the UK was in line to get around 60 million doses of the vaccine – enough to cover half the population – by the end of December, with the rest of the doses following next year. The first are expected next month.

However, there is expected to be some delay between when the manufacturers, Baxter and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), deliver the supplies and people receive their first vaccinations.

The jab has to be approved by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) before it can be used.

Yesterday, figures from Health Protection Scotland suggested a rise in the number of patients seeing their GP with flu-like symptoms.

In the week ending 10th July there were 25 consultations per 100,000 people, up slightly from the 23.6 cases reported by the Scottish Government last week.

More updated figures are expected to be published today.thursday

So far 17 deaths in the UK have been reported in patients who contracted swine flu.

But experts have had difficulty estimating the possible number of deaths which could be expected due to swine flu during the pandemic.

One estimate suggests one in 200 of those who are ill enough to seek medical help will die as a result of swine flu.

Prof Pennington described this figure as "pessimistic", suggested the rate could be nearer one in 1,000.

He said it was difficult to estimate the rate of deaths as not all cases were being lab tested and recorded.

"We don't have an accurate count of the number of cases because of the asymptomatic and mild cases not being tested. The number of cases is greater than the number that is given.

"We probably don't have an absolutely brilliant estimate of the number of deaths either because not everyone is investigated," he said.