Cancer deaths are set to plummet by 17% in the next 20 years, says charity

Published on 25/09/2012 03:50

CANCER deaths are expected to fall by almost a fifth in the next two decades, as better diagnosis and treatment curtail mortality rates.

Predictions made by Cancer Research UK, based on new research, suggest deaths will drop 17 per cent by 2030. The improved outlook is also said to reflect the fact that fewer people are smoking.

Professor Peter Sasieni, Cancer Research UK epidemiologist at Queen Mary, University of London, said: “Our latest estimations show that for many cancers,
adjusting for age, death rates are set to fall dramatically in the coming decades. And what’s
really encouraging is that the biggest cancer killers, lung, breast, bowel and prostate, are part of this falling trend.

“Because old age is the biggest risk factor for cancer and more people are living longer, they have a greater chance of developing and, unfortunately, dying from the disease. But overall the proportion, or rate, of those who die from cancer is falling.”

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In 2010, an estimated 170
in every 100,000 members of the general population died from cancer. A statistical study has predicted that over the next 17 years this will fall to 142.

However, official figures, released last month, showed that the percentage of people dying from cancer in Scotland has risen from 22 per cent in 1980 to 1982 to 29 per cent in 2011.

Last year, 8,005 men and 7,452 women in Scotland died of
cancer, compared with 7,269 and 6,634 women three decades ago, with lung cancer the
current No1 killer.

Ovarian cancer will see the biggest drop in numbers of
patients dying, at 42.6 per cent, Cancer Research UK predicts. Incidence of the disease is expected to reduce from 9.1 women per 100,000 to 5.3 by 2030.

Death rates for breast cancer, the second biggest killer in Scotland, are predicted to fall by 
28 per cent UK-wide, while bowel cancer and prostate 
cancer are expected to fall by
23 per cent and 16 per cent
respectively.

However, deaths from some cancers are expected to rise.