Britain braced for shutdown as swine flu crisis looms

Published on Tuesday 21 July 2009 21:59

PRESSURE to close the nation's schools in an effort to halt the spread of swine flu increased yesterday with experts saying it could prove effective in tackling the virus.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said school closure was one measure that might be considered by countries as they face the threat of the infection. Researchers suggested that shutting schools could reduce flu cases by 45 per cent at the peak of an outbreak.

Both the UK and Scottish governments yesterday said there were currently no plans to close schools as a way of slowing the spread of swine flu.

But businesses across Scotland are being urged to draw up contingency plans should mass school closures lead to widespread staff absence, as parents are forced to stay at home to look after children.

More than 100 schools across the UK have closed for a time since the outbreak began.

With schools now on their summer breaks, questions remain over whether they should reopen after the holidays, or close in the future as cases of swine flu rise in the autumn.

WHO spokesman Alphaluck Bhatiasevi said: "School closure is one of the mitigation measures that could be considered by countries.

"As WHO has been saying, different countries would be facing the pandemic at different levels at different times. So it is really up to countries to consider what mitigation measures suit them."

Infection experts have argued that a programme of school closures over the autumn could "break the chains of transmission" and buy time to produce a vaccine.

Professor Neil Ferguson and Dr Simon Cauchemez, from the department of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, cited studies showing that closing schools at the height of a flu pandemic could cut the number of cases by up to 45 per cent.

Their study, published in the Lancet, said: "The (swine flu] pandemic could become more severe, and so the current cautious approach of not necessarily recommending school closure in Europe and North America might need reappraisal in the autumn."

The scientists quoted a recent French study that suggested that "proactively" closing schools could reduce flu cases by between 13 per cent and 17 per cent overall, and by between 38 per cent and 45 per cent during the outbreak's peak.

The report said that, as children appeared to be more susceptible to the current bug than adults, there could be "strong arguments" for ministers to revisit their policy on school closures.

But Sir Liam Donaldson, the UK's chief medical officer, warned that such a move would have an "extremely disruptive" effect. He said: "I think it would take a lot for us to move in that direction. It would be extremely disruptive to society – when would you open them again, given that flu might be around for several months?"

Sir Liam added: "If we look at what we did in the West Midlands, for example, where we did very aggressively initially close schools and treated people with Tamiflu who didn't have symptoms but were contacts of cases, eventually it broke out of the box and spread more widely.

"I think we will obviously keep all of these things under review as we do with any scientific advice, but at the moment I think it is unlikely."

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) Scotland has said it is inevitable workers will be forced to take time off to care for their children, and said companies should act now to minimise the disruption.

FSB spokesman Colin Borland said his members had a "window of opportunity" to arrange contingency plans for how their businesses might cope in the event of widespread school closures.

He said: "We are encouraging people to look at their businesses and how swine flu will impact on their staff, especially those employees who have to look after their children.

"Now, what businesses have to do is think about how they will cope – what parts of the business will they be able to keep going, and how will any changes impact on suppliers and clients?"

He added: "We have a window of opportunity to minimise the disruption. The experts reckon swine flu will spread in earnest at the end of summer, so we have six weeks to put these plans in place."

A Scottish Government spokesman said: "There are no plans at this stage to keep schools closed beyond the summer break. However, we will keep the situation under close scrutiny, taking into account information on how the pandemic develops and any expert advice as it becomes available."

Meanwhile, there was more advice yesterday on what pregnant women should do to reduce their risk of catching swine flu.

At the weekend, it was suggested that expectant mothers should avoid crowded places to cut their chances of being infected. Yesterday, Sir Liam said pregnant women and people with weakened immune systems might be advised to stay away from crowds for a period of a "few weeks" should the swine flu reach "big numbers" in the autumn.

He said pregnant women were not currently being advised to change their lifestyles, but there was a possibility that he could issue such advice in the autumn if swine flu reached a level of, for example, one in three of the population.

"We are not advising pregnant women to cut down on their normal daily activity – some might choose to be very precautionary and not want to go into crowded places, but that is not the advice," he said. "But we will look at it again when it comes to the autumn when we get possibly big numbers of cases."