Be prepared for swine flu's return in more deadly form, says health chief

Published on Saturday 11 July 2009 20:00

SCOTLAND is preparing for swine flu to return in a more serious form this winter, with the prospect of rising deaths from the growing number of people falling ill, the country's chief medical officer has warned.

Dr Harry Burns, who has been at the centre of efforts to tackle the H1N1 virus in Scotland, said the illness was currently still mild in most cases and pandemic plans were working well.

But he said the country needed to be "anxious" about the chances of swine flu returning in a more "vigorous" form during the winter months.

Burns spoke out after the first death in Britain of a patient who was otherwise healthy.

The victim had been treated at hospital in Essex for nine days after being diagnosed with the virus, but died on Friday.

The family of the victim, who had been admitted to Basildon and Thurrock University Hospital, have asked for no more details of their relative to be released, although it is understood they were not a child or elderly – considered two of the most vulnerable groups.

A spokeswoman for NHS East of England said: "We would like to extend their deepest sympathies to the family affected as they come to terms with their loss."

The death means that 15 people across the UK, including two in Scotland, have now died after contracting the virus.

Burns also said getting enough people vaccinated was key to reducing the numbers who fall ill.

The Westminster government has predicted that by the end of August, 100,000 cases of swine flu could be diagnosed every day in the UK, including 10,000 in Scotland.

However, Burns questioned this calculation, which is based on the number of cases doubling every week.

He told Scotland on Sunday: "At the moment we are not doubling every seven days. We are running along at about 50 confirmed cases a day, which is a lot less than doubling.

"That figure is based on taking activity within a hotspot and assuming it is going to spread indefinitely around the UK.

"That might happen as a very worst case scenario, but my view is that it's very unlikely to happen that way."

But Burns added: "The fact that it is still being transmitted in the summer makes it unusual. You have got to be anxious and thoughtful about its propensity to return in a more vigorous form in the winter."

Burns said past flu pandemics gave clues to what could happen this time.

"Previous experience is that it has been a two-winter thing. It has emerged at the end of one winter, tickled around over the summer and then come back with a vengeance.

"This is a proper pandemic by the true definition of the word. "It's not a serious virus in the sense that we had prepared for much, much worse than this.

"The supposition is that if it does come back again in the winter it will be more serious

because our own resistance will be less and there will be other bugs around."

Asked if more people would die from swine flu, Dr Burns said: "If the number of cases continues to go up at the rate they have been, then yes.

"I am optimistic that it is not going up at a huge rate in Scotland just now."

The figures so far suggest swine flu has a much lower mortality rate than seasonal winter flu, which each year kills thousands of mainly older people in the UK.

Burns said with seasonal flu, around three or four people per 1,000 patients may die as a result, compared with around two deaths in 10,000 cases for swine flu.

Most nations' pandemic flu plans were produced on the assumption that bird flu – the H5N1 virus – would be the most likely type to emerge. But swine flu has so far proved less deadly.