Hamish Macdonell: SNP's referendum hopes pinned on UK polls

Published on Monday 9 March 2009 21:13

SO THE referendum is dead. Scots will not get the chance to vote on independence in the lifetime of this parliament. That's clear. It must be, after all the three main opposition parties have united in condemning the plans and insist they will not change their minds this side of the 2011 election.

Well, not quite. There is much more going on with this whole referendum business under the surface, simply because independence is what the SNP is all about – indeed, the party was hardly going to come to power and then roll over without a fight on its number-one issue.

The reality is that SNP leaders have a plan and it all hinges on next year's UK general election. Every stage of the SNP's recent march from the broad, but rather shambolic, independence movement it was in 2004 to the efficient electoral machine it is now has been characterised by the setting of seemingly impossible goals, achieving them and moving on to the next – all with the ultimate aim of independence.

First, Alex Salmond set his party the target of raising 1 million to fight the 2007 election: it did so. Then he told the SNP to win that election: it did that, too. Next on the list was the Glasgow East by-election: it won that too and, in the wake of that victory, Mr Salmond reiterated his call for the SNP to win 20 of the 59 Scottish seats up for grabs at the next UK general election.

This seemed an extraordinarily ambitious target, more so when the SNP failed to take Glenrothes last autumn – the party's only real setback over the past two years.

That 20-seat target has always been seen by most observers as nothing more than a benchmark for the SNP, a symbolic target because, for it, real Scottish power resides at Holyrood. But that 20-seat ambition is crucial to the SNP's hopes of a referendum.

The first, and most advantageous, scenario for the SNP is that the Nationalists get their 20 seats and Labour loses the election, but not by a big enough margin to hand David Cameron the keys to Downing Street.

The parliament is hung and, when that happens, the SNP wields massive influence with its 20-seat block.

The party could either keep Gordon Brown in Downing Street, or let Mr Cameron in – in return for its support.

What price the independence referendum then? Would Mr Brown accede to a referendum to stay in No10? He might see it as something of a Faustian pact, but he might do it. So might Mr Cameron. If that was the case, a referendum could be done and organised by the parties in London, without Iain Gray or Annabel Goldie having to – or even being able to – change their minds.

The more likely election scenario is slightly more complex for the SNP. It sees the party getting its 20 MPs, but with the Conservatives winning the election and Labour ejected from power.

In those circumstances, Mr Cameron would not need to do a deal with the SNP. He could rule without it, but the electoral message from those 20 seats would be compelling.

If the Nationalists could win 20 seats and get the largest number of votes of any party in Scotland, which is distinctly possible given that the Labour Party is on the way down, then the democratic case for holding a referendum on independence would be very strong indeed.

Mr Cameron would hate to agree to it, but the pressure exerted on him by such a massive endorsement of the SNP's case would be hard to ignore. The Conservative leader would also have to weigh up the effect his refusal to hold a referendum would have on Scotland, a part of the country he would hardly represent.

Put simply, senior Nationalists believe a lot will change politically before they put their plans for a referendum to the Scottish Parliament, shifting the ground in their direction.

But can they do it? Can they win those 20 seats at the next Westminster election?

To do so, the SNP will have to start taking seats off Labour in its urban heartlands. Glasgow East showed this could be done in a by-election, but general elections are different beasts altogether.

There are, though, two factors in the SNP's favour: one is that Labour appears to be heading towards a pretty devastating defeat and, with a still popular SNP government in power at Holyrood, conditions could not be better for the Nationalists.

There has also been a subtle change in the nature of Labour support in Scotland. Seats which were never vulnerable were still won at the last election, but with significantly reduced majorities. On the surface, it seemed as if Labour was simply winning its usual raft of seats without any trouble, but, underneath, the situation was much tighter.

Constituencies that had been won with majorities of 6,000 or 8,000 were now being won by just 2,000 or 4,000, and seats with previous majorities of 4,000 were down to 1,000 or below. What this means now is that there are far more Labour marginals in Scotland than for a very long time, putting a whole swathe of seats within the SNP's grasp.

The Scottish Labour Party has just held its conference in Dundee, perhaps unaware that the city represents a fairly good barometer for its changing political fortunes.

In the once-solid Labour city, the SNP now holds three of the four constituency seats (two for Holyrood, one of the two for Westminster), and there is a council by-election this week, which could see the Nationalists take control of the council for the first time.

Dundee could be Scotland's first totally Nationalist city after next year's election. The same election could see the yellow and black tide of SNP votes spreading down from the North-east towards the Central Belt. It could bring with it the 20 seats Mr Salmond has asked for.

But what SNP leaders also realise is that it will be carrying all their hopes for a referendum on independence as well.