Hamish Macdonell: Catholic Church cannot win or lose poll for Labour

Published on Monday 14 July 2008 20:35

THERE were more than a few palpitations in the Labour by-election campaign HQ in Glasgow East on Sunday when news dropped of the vitriolic attack by Bishop Joseph Devine on the party for "violating moral law".

Party managers could imagine thousands of voters streaming out of Mass that morning, picking up their Sunday newspapers and being so taken by Bishop Devine's comments that they would decide, as one, to desert Labour on polling day.

The reason for their worry is simple: Glasgow East is seen as a Catholic constituency and Catholics, particularly in Glasgow, have traditionally voted Labour. If Labour loses the Catholic vote, so the theory goes, then it will lose the election.

As a result, Labour Party managers are terrified of upsetting the Catholic Church: that much became clear when they decided to delay the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill – the one which is causing so much Catholic outrage – in case it became a by-election issue.

But how much influence over the by-election, really, does the church have? Let us look at the facts. About a third of the voters in Glasgow East declared themselves Catholic at the last census.

With an electorate of 62,621, of whom – at most – half will vote, this means that there will probably be about 10,500 Catholics voting in this month's by-election.

The next, and most important, question is: how many of these will be influenced by the warnings of Bishop Devine? That is impossible to say, but the number is unlikely to be very high.

There are many reasons why people vote the way they do and a very strong combination in Glasgow East is past practice, family and values. If a family has always voted Labour, it takes a lot to get them to switch.

Other, less ephemeral reasons are health, education, crime, housing, transport and benefits. All of these will probably exert a stronger influence than embryo research or the abortion time limit – the two issues which have been exercising Bishop Devine.

It is important to stress here that this article is not about morality. The Catholic Church has many valid and persuasive arguments about both these issues and has made points which it is fully entitled and, indeed, which it should make, in this debate.

This is about politics and the influence which some in the Labour Party feel the Catholic Church has over its voters, particularly in Glasgow. It is also about the sort of lobbying – or rather bullying – which the Church indulges in.

Look at some of the language used by the Catholic Church on these issues. James MacMillan, the high-profile Catholic composer, predicted recently that Labour would lose the Glasgow East by-election because of its betrayal of traditional morality.

Mr MacMillan used the most extraordinary and intemperate terms to berate Labour, describing the "evil" and "intentional killing of an unborn child". He talked of the "shame" of Labour for "creating a culture of death" in Britain and warned that Catholics would bring down the party unless it changed tack.

Bishop Devine warned that Labour had "repudiated and abandoned Christian truths and values" and had "broken its pact with Christian voters" while Cardinal Keith O'Brien, president of the Bishops' Conference of Scotland, recently wrote to every MP ahead of the expected abortion debate, warning about changes to make abortion "more readily available".

So what of Margaret Curran's response? As the Labour candidate for Glasgow East she is the one in the eye of the storm, facing warnings of electoral meltdown from the pulpit from one side and her conscience on the other.

When asked these questions on Sunday she hesitated, looked decidedly nervous and first came out with a lot of guff about wanting a debate and appreciating the strong lead the Catholic Church was taking on these issues. Then, when pushed, she stuck to her principles and backed both the government's plans to allow embryo research and not to reduce the time limit for abortions.

It was a brave approach and totally and absolutely the correct one for her. If Ms Curran believes she is right on these points, she should be allowed to articulate them.

Claiming that Labour will lose the Glasgow East by-election because of its record on embryo research and abortion suggests the Catholic Church can decide who is going to win and who is going to lose the election, which it cannot.

Moreover, if Labour wins the Glasgow East by-election, which it is still on course to do, then it should prove to both the party and to the Catholic Church that the Church does not have the influence it claims to have.

Glasgow East is the best possible test ground for this battle. It is a solidly Labour, strongly Catholic constituency. If the Catholic Church fails to swing the by-election from Labour on such favourable ground this time, then both organisations should realise that the Church really does not have the power over the electorate that it thinks it does.

Maybe then we might have some sort of rational appraisal of the Church's influence on Scottish politics: Labour would have no reason to be scared of the Catholic Church in the future – and would not go to such ludicrous lengths as postponing legislation for fear of causing a row – and the Catholic Church would have no foundation for the sort of bullying we have seen recently.

Put bluntly, the Labour Party should stop kowtowing to the Catholic Church in the mistaken belief that it can win or lose elections for it. It can't, and the sooner the party realises that and stands up for what it believes in, the better.