Good intentions won't hit the emissions target

Published on Monday 22 June 2009 22:52

THE Climate Change (Scotland) Bill will legally mandate the Scottish Government to reduce emissions. If they fail to meet annual targets, the law will require ministers to spend taxpayers' money reducing emissions in the Third World by buying "carbon credits".

Suppose the legal target is unreasonable. If a minister tells the civil service to implement policies that fail to address the impossible legal target, the civil servants will be in a legal bind. Dissenting civil servants will demand written orders – a device used only when the civil service is desperate to avoid blame. Non-governmental organisations which support the target will take ministers to court for failing in their legal obligations.

Scotland has cut emissions by 18 per cent since 1990, largely by the accident of Ravenscraig steelworks closing. The Scottish Government believes it can push that up to 34 per cent by 2020 using Holyrood powers. It also thinks that if a new Kyoto Treaty is negotiated, EU rules will force big companies to buy carbon credits, triggering a reduction in emissions. That big stick could improve the reduction in emissions to 42 per cent by 2020.

Without EU intervention, St Andrew's House is not confident Scotland can go any higher than the 34 per cent cut – whatever target the politicians vote for. If a higher target is passed, civil servants will be obliged to tell whoever is in power that they will need to put the squeeze on private individuals.

For instance, if the Calman proposals are implemented, giving Holyrood power over speed limits, setting a Scottish national limit of 55mph on motorways would substantially reduce emissions. But would it be popular?