Glasgow East by-election: 'Poll will send shivers down Labour's spine'

Published on Saturday 12 July 2008 10:50

THE news that the SNP has overtaken Labour in voting intentions for a Westminster general election will send shivers down Labour's spine as the party prepares to defend the Glasgow East seat.

The YouGov poll published yesterday gives the Nationalists a clear four point lead and the only crumb of comfort for Labour is that the majority of those polled are still firmly against the idea of Scotland gaining independence.

Although polls can hardly be considered an accurate reflection of how people will actually vote on the day, there are signs that Labour is running scared at a time when in UK and Scottish terms things are not going too well for them.

On paper, defending one of the safest Westminster majorities in what has always been a rock solid Labour seat would in normal circumstances be a formality.

But a faltering economy and an unsteady performance from an under fire Gordon Brown combined with the loss of Wendy Alexander as leader in Scotland is hardly the ideal preparation for going into battle on July 24. After heavy defeats in both Crewe and Nantwich and Henley, Mr Brown will not be keen to rack up an unenviable hat-trick of disasters. And they are up against a well marshalled and revived opponent in the SNP who will be keen to cement their hold on Scotland having routed Labour in last year's Holyrood elections.

The decision to delay a vote on new embryo laws from next Monday until the autumn - more than a third of voters in Glasgow East are Catholic – is another sure sign of the nervousness within Westminster and has opened Labour up to accusations of mothballing the issue in an attempt to shore up its vote.

While some would say that it is custom for Prime Ministers to stay away from by-election campaigns, others would say that the fact that Mr Brown seems set on distancing himself from a battle being fought on his home turf as an attempt to wash his hands of any involvement in what could prove an embarrassment. On the other hand David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Alex Salmond have all made high-profile visits to the constituency.

It remains to be seen if Alex Salmond's prediction of the SNP causing an "earthquake" in Glasgow East will come true. But there are certainly signs that they may cause a major voting landslide. To what extent such a result would further undermine Mr Brown's leadership remains to be seen.