Gerri Peev: Why it may make sense for Brown to cosy up to Salmond

Published on Tuesday 23 December 2008 20:42

AT HOLYROOD, politicians open their parliamentary sessions with a "time for reflection". At Westminster, there is no such contemplative luxury: MPs go straight for "prayers". Perhaps they have more reason to – metaphorically – drop to their knees and seek redemption and guidance, particularly in these troubled times.

But while most ordinary voters lie awake fearing for their jobs, one man has managed to finish the year more secure in his. And that is partly because Gordon Brown has made 2008 his year for reconciliation – a remarkable personal achievement for a man whose feuds and grudges can last decades.

He has buried the hatchet with Peter Mandelson – his new Cabinet star has gone from foe to friend again.

Most importantly, the Prime Minister has also learned to listen. After the 10p tax debacle and the plot to oust the PM that never came off, Mr Brown has made 2008 his year for learning from the past.

But there is one other character the PM may need to make overtures to, and he is not going to like it.

If anyone comes across a piece of mistletoe, they need to hold it over the doorway of Bute House the next time Alex Salmond, the First Minister, and Mr Brown are in the vicinity.

Perhaps, after Glenrothes, the PM can afford to be magnanimous in victory and make the first move to woo the Nationalists.

This is not a suggestion of some random act of kindness, rather a strategy for political survival. For after the next election, the SNP and other small Westminster parties could very well hold the key to the next government getting its legislation through.

Luckily for Mr Brown, his relations with Mr Salmond are not as septic as those between the First Minister and Tony Blair, whom the SNP tried to impeach for war crimes.

Ever since the Nationalists expunged the ban on working with the Conservatives from their constitution, the threat of them backing David Cameron rather than Mr Brown has grown.

Much was made of a ComRes poll this week that apparently showed the "Brown bounce" was over. The Conservatives were five points ahead of Labour, after their lead had previously been cut to three. The new poll put the Tories on 39 per cent and Labour on 34. Although our bizarre system would still give Labour more seats, the party would be 30 short of an overall majority.

This is where the Nats could come into play, along with the Liberal Democrats – or perhaps even at their expense.

But the most damaging aspect of the poll was that, when voters were asked how they would vote if the Tories promised to lower spending and cut taxes, a much bigger proportion switched to the Tories. The gap under those circumstances widened to 17 points.

There was, however, one under-reported question also posed in this poll: who would voters back if a general election was called in the middle of a recession? Then it became a nail-biting finish, with the Tories on 39 per cent and Labour on 38. And the recession is not likely to be over by May 2010, the last possible date for Mr Brown to go to the polls.

On current polling, the Liberal Democrats would get squeezed to 14 per cent and "others" including the SNP and Plaid Cymru, would be on 10 per cent.

The SNP has a target of winning 20 seats, but it is more likely to get closer to half that number, especially if the Glenrothes by- election pattern is followed and Labour continues to shore up its vote in its heartland.

Even so, that, along with the extra seats that Plaid is expected to secure, doubling its representation at Westminster to six, could see the Nationalist bloc flexing its muscles.

Should a hung parliament occur, the grouping that includes the SNP and Plaid Cymru could play a crucial role.

Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, has had a challenging year. He desperately wants to be taken seriously but still makes schoolboy errors – gaffes over his personal life and being overheard slagging off his "shadow cabinet" have earned him probably more media coverage than many of Lib Dem policy announcements.

The only saviour for the party is Vince Cable. He has reason to be secretly thrilled when the recession deepens, for it means his forecasts are being proven right. And unlike Mr Brown, the Lib Dems' economics guru is not about to be blamed for it.

While it seems unpalatable for both Labour and SNP supporters to think about working together, the Tories are the enemy for the Nationalists in at least two seats. The SNP-held constituencies of Perth and North Perthshire and Moray are Nos 30 and 39 respectively on the Tory target list. Mr Cameron has also confirmed his position as an arch-unionist, killing off SNP hopes that a Tory prime minister would give covert support for Scotland to go it alone.

Over the coming year, Westminster and Holyrood will be forced to work together to thwart the worst ravages of the downturn.

Scotland's reputation as a financial services centre is almost in ruins, thanks to the near cataclysmic collapse of two iconic banks, a fate that will only be further compounded with the massive cull that will come as Lloyds TSB takes over HBOS. Many of Chancellor Alistair Darling's own constituents will be affected by the inevitable job losses.

The Prime Minister must not be allowed to see Scotland fall behind.

He would do well to reflect on the words of Charles Dickens, who saw Christmas as "a good time; a kind, forgiving, charitable time; the only time I know of, in the long calendar of the year, when men and women seem by one consent to open their shut-up hearts freely, and to think of people below them as if they really were fellow passengers to the grave, and not another race of creatures bound on other journeys".