Gerri Peev's Glenrothes by-election blog

Published on Thursday 6 November 2008 00:46

READERS of The Scotsman will know that this paper was one of the few to buck the media trend and predict last week that the SNP would win.

The reason? The confidence of some of the more level-headed types in the party, the better organisation and the more sophisticated voter records. And let us not forget the momentum behind the SNP. Nationalist supporters have had a taste of power and they want more. What is staggering is how many young, ambitious types have signed up to the party. It is the same heady hype that surrounded New Labour when it was more new than Labour. And it was increasingly visible at the Conservative Party annual conference in Birmingham last month, despite a ban on champagne drinking at the beginning of the banking crisis.

Stewart Hosie has just been on Newsnight saying that the SNP has had more promise of support than it did in Glasgow East.

Another indicator was Alex Salmond's mood this afternoon. The FM knows how to turn on the charm when he wants to. For all the accusations of bluster, his confidence today seemed genuine. He was a man at ease with his destiny.

The word from all the parties – even the less hopeful Labour activists – is that the SNP is expected to win by around 1,500. Labour however has reported it is exceeding expectations with postal votes.

I still say the SNP to win...but the fact that every commentator now agrees makes me slightly uneasy. There is nothing as dangerous as received wisdom.

***

EARLY rise for the Tories, Labour and the SNP tomorrow. If you hear something drop through your letterbox in Glenrothes between 5 and 7am tomorrow, don't get out the baseball bat.

It is probably a candidate trying to deliver a good morning leaflet to you.

The Tories' Maurice Golden has arguably made more sacrifices than most to fight this election. Although it is near impossible for the Tories to win, Golden has used up his holiday to campaign...And with just three weeks until he gets married, one hopes he has a very understanding wife-to-be who does not mind that she may have to delay a honeymoon.