Gerri Peev: Plot against Brown as alive as his desire to stay

Published on Tuesday 9 June 2009 21:52

GORDON Brown's friends insist that the only way he can leave Number 10 is in a bodybag. His detractors certainly don't wish that kind of departure, but still crave a sharp exit nonetheless.

Rumours of the death of the plot to remove Brown are wildly exaggerated. It is as alive as the incumbent in Downing Street. Ministers are biding their time, with a view to turning off his life support at the end of summer, just in time for their conference where a new leader – probably the seemingly blameless Alan Johnson – could be chosen.

It is hoped Mr Johnson's remarkable back story – the postman who used to deliver letters to Dorneywood, the grace and favour home of John Prescott when he was deputy prime minister – would distract the media enough to put off the clamour for an instant general election.

A new leader may be able to put off going to the polls before the spring. Alternatively, he or she – write off Harriet Harman at your peril – may decide things can only get worse.

Certainly, the 15 per cent share of the vote Labour won in this week's European election was dreadful news for the government, but the figures were also disappointing for the Tories.

At the same time in the cycle before New Labour's 1997 landslide, the party received 44 per cent, compared with the Conservatives' 29 per cent.

Justice Secretary Jack Straw said that the public remains unconvinced about the Conservatives and David Cameron knows he is right.

Labour rebels are playing the long game for now. But they should be warned that the PM has other plans. And by the autumn, if not earlier, he will have his hands full with swine flu.

Labour insiders admit that this could sabotage the timing of any coup, making the rebels look self-indulgent at a time when the world is grappling with a potential pandemic. (One can almost imagine Gordon Brown tip-toeing around the backs of schools and hospitals, releasing vials of the pathogens into crowded rooms…)

Mr Brown has another card to play, though: economic indicators are expected to be better in the autumn. This could allow him to argue that he is beginning to turn the economy around. Of course, this assessment is hugely optimistic at a time when the UK's credit rating could yet be downgraded.

It may currently be rebel back-benchers who are sticking their heads over the parapets, rather than the officer class, but it is not the ordinary troops who will ultimately bring down Brown.

Their problem is that there are no easy mechanisms in place to depose a prime minister.

Mr Brown's communication skills may compare unfavourably with the latest deadbeats on Big Brother, but the PM is nothing if not skilled at the political equivalent of waterboarding: party mechanics.

As a friend of Mr Brown's recently boasted: "Why do you think we have Ray Collins as General Secretary?" Brown also has one of his long-suffering allies, Charlie Whelan, ensconced near the top of trade union Unite, the party's biggest bankroller.

It will not let a new leader be installed without a threat to withdraw cash – MPs have already been warned by whips not to expect any campaigning resources to go their way if they continue to rock the boat.

After a mass walkout of WAGs (Women Against Gordon) last Wednesday, Mr Collins put out a message to members reminding them of the complexity of the rules of changing leader.

In what was rightly seen as a high-risk stroke of genius, Mr Brown has even embraced the greatest schemer of them all back into his inner circle, ending a 14-year feud with Peter Mandelson to bring him back into the Cabinet.

And "Lord Voldemort", as he is known, has rewarded the Prime Minister after being bestowed with the powers of deputy prime minister. He has dragged ambitious ministers out before the cameras, forcing them to declare their loyalty after panic hit Number 10 when James Purnell walked out of the Cabinet on Thursday night.

Lord Mandelson has even been convinced to water down the plans for privatisation of the Royal Mail to avoid another embarrassing Commons defeat.

But back to the risky bit of bringing back Lord Mandelson. No-one surpasses Gordon Brown's ability to bear a grudge – except perhaps Peter Mandelson. He was shoddily shunned by Mr Brown after he – rightly, it now transpires – refused to back him for the Labour leadership over Tony Blair in 1994.

Lord Mandelson is too passionate to allow the party his grandfather also served to be trampled into the ground; expect him to be the one to hand the revolver to Brown when his position becomes even more untenable than it currently is.

Mr Brown plans to fight back, to recast the narrative for Labour with a series of policy initiatives, speeding up the Iraq inquiry and firing off ideas for constitutional change. He may even have time to look at the economy again – ironically the expenses crisis has helped to bolster consumer confidence by diverting attention away from how grim the outlook really is for jobs. But none of these are likely to change the public's mind about him.

Glasgow MP Tom Harris was one of the few to publicly speak out against the PM.

He said that it would be "unfair to expect the Prime Minister to volunteer for some sort of personality transplant".

Ouch.

So for all the ministerial pledges of loyalty do not be fooled.

Perhaps there should be little surprise that Lord Falconer, the former Lord Chancellor and ex-flatmate of Tony Blair, is helping push through an assisted suicide bill. He has also broken cover to call for Mr Brown to quit.

It may seem kinder to help those who suffer from incurable, painful diseases to meet a dignified end. But for that to happen, the patient must be willing to sign the form. And Gordon Brown is nowhere near that. The corpse is still twitching.