All to play for

THERE were two significant political events last week, both of which could have spelled bad news for Gordon Brown's attempt to hang on as prime minister. First was the news that Samantha Cameron was pregnant with her fourth child, a happy event made poignant in the light of the death last year of her handicapped son Ivan. Political pundits rushed to pontificate that SamCamMam's pregnancy was a boost to David Cameron's image, helping to humanise him in the eyes of the voter, and incre

And yet, our YouGov poll today shows that Mr Cameron's fecundity does not appear to have made him more popular, nor Mr Brown's Budget made the Prime Minister less popular. In fact, compared to the last YouGov poll for this newspaper in February, the opposite is the case, with Mr Brown's position strengthening and Mr Cameron's weakening. With the election campaign likely to become more like a presidential contest as we move to the televised debates, this is a trend which, if it continues, could threaten Mr Cameron's chances of making advances in Scotland and – if replicated across the rest of the UK – becoming premier.

The question that has been asked, quietly, for a number of weeks now is becoming more insistent: is David Cameron going to end up as the Tory party's Neil Kinnock, the nearly-man who ultimately failed to convince the British electorate he was right for Number Ten Downing Street? It is too early to say, but the possibility remains.

Our poll results will make uncomfortable reading for another party leader today. Alex Salmond used his keynote speech to last weekend's SNP conference in Aviemore to unveil the message he hopes will prove a winner for the Nationalists and push them towards their target of 20 seats at Westminster. The strategy of "more Nats, less cuts" was intended to persuade voters that only a strong SNP presence in the House of Commons can curb Labour or Tory government cuts in public spending, and the resulting decimation of front-line services in Scotland. Our poll findings show that the Scottish public is unimpressed with this theory, by a margin of almost two-to-one.

Regardless of whether the voters are right in this judgment – the SNP's stance has merit in a number of regards – this does not bode well for the Nationalists' campaign. Coming the day after a YouGov poll in The Scotsman showed that voters regard the main UK parties as more believable on big issues such as the economy, and it is clear the SNP's strategy for the general election is built on shaky foundations.

This election was always going to be about the economy. It was always going to be about which politicians the voters trust to make the tough decisions we all know are necessary if we are to drive down the national debt and get us out of hock. If the SNP cannot find traction on this issue it may pay a heavy electoral price come 6 May (which is still the most likely polling day). Adding to SNP woes, there are other ominous signs – Alex Salmond's personal popularity appears to be slipping, and opposition to independence appears to be hardening.

More encouraging for the SNP is the fact that when it comes to voting intentions – which, after all, is what elections are all about – the party's standing is remaining steady and even, in Holyrood voting intentions, recovering slightly. Encouraging too is the fact that Scots are more satisfied with the way they are governed from SNP-dominated Holyrood than the way they are governed from Labour-dominated Westminster. For the SNP there is still all to play for.