Experts revise down number of Scots who could die from swine flu

Published on Thursday 3 September 2009 22:03

ESTIMATES of the number of people who could die during the swine flu pandemic in Scotland and across the UK were reduced yesterday.

Health secretary Nicola Sturgeon said the revised "worst case" planning assumptions now indicated that up to 0.1 per cent of people in Scotland who became ill with H1N1 mighty die – fewer than 2,000 people. This is a drop from previous estimates of 0.35 per cent potentially dying – more than 5,000 people.

Swine flu is still causing mild illness in most people. However, in some cases the virus can be serious, and experts have warned against complacency in tackling it.

Other figures yesterday showed cases of H1N1 in children could be increasing after the schools returned. Ms Sturgeon said the new estimates did not take account of the impact of the flu vaccination programme, due to start in mid-October.

She told the Scottish Parliament: "Furthermore, they are not predictions. They are assumptions that allow us to plan for the worst, while, of course, continuing to hope for the best. And while having lower estimates for hospitalised cases and fatalities is positive, these assumptions will be kept under review."

The estimates suggest 30 per cent of the population may still catch swine flu – unchanged from earlier assumptions. But, as well as a fall in deaths, the new estimates suggested 1 per cent would need hospital treatment, down from 2 per cent.

During peak weeks of the pandemic, sickness absence rates may hit 12 per cent of the workforce in Scotland.

The same analysis was also applied to the UK, where the "worst case scenario" for deaths now stands at 19,000 – down from 65,000 suggested in July.

Ms Sturgeon said rates of infection "remain relatively low" in Scotland.

Figures suggested that 2,500 people had contracted the H1N1 virus in the past week.

There was a slight fall in the number of community samples testing positive for swine flu, but a slight rise in the rate of GP consultations for flu-like illnesses.

But figures showed an increase in children seeing doctors with flu symptoms, after earlier suggestions that the new school term could increase spread.

In the under-fours, the rate of GP consultations increased from 78 per 100,000 to 96 in a week, while in those aged five to 14 the rate rose from 17 to 28.

Ms Sturgeon said pupil and staff absence levels had been "at or below" normal levels since the new term started on 17 August.

England's chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said he had assessed the Scottish data and said there was "no suggestion of any significant upturn" since the schools returned. It comes as the results of a pilot study of a swine flu vaccine revealed a "strong immune response" after just one dose.

Scientists from the University of Leicester said they tested 100 healthy volunteers with a cell-based drug to see how their immune system responded.