Ewan Crawford: Recession is a golden opportunity for SNP

Published on Sunday 22 March 2009 20:44

'THIS is a moment to seize. The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon they will settle again." That was Tony Blair talking about the future of the world after the 9/11 terrorist atrocity.

When The Scotsman revealed that the Dunfermline Building Society was set to announce a loss, similar thoughts went through my head.

Now I know some of you are probably thinking that the short-term financial problems suffered by a Scottish mutual are not quite on a par with a century-defining terrorist attack, but the news about the Dunfermline confirms that when it comes to Scottish independence, to borrow another phrase from the former prime minister, the rules of the game have changed.

When I was a strategist for the SNP, elections in Scotland were relatively simple affairs. Labour, usually with an Alexander to the fore, would come up with various figures showing that, under independence, Scotland would face a budget deficit of three, four or however many more billions of pounds their finest economic brains could dream up.

We would then wearily refute that with figures of our own. Indeed, we would point out that other countries similar in size to Scotland – Ireland comes to mind – were roaring ahead of us in terms of economic growth and living standards. We could also highlight the enduring strength of our financial sector – from world players to traditional mutuals.

The economic crisis now clearly demands a rethink on both sides.

Despite their breathtakingly distasteful joy at the collapse of the major Scottish banks and the difficulties faced by some, although not all, small nations, the bigger challenges, I believe, now lie with supporters of the Union.

The old deficit arguments deployed effectively to frighten people away from independence now look bankrupt. In truth, they have done ever since the Chancellor stood up in the House of Commons and announced that next year the UK would be borrowing 118 billion. That figure now looks very optimistic.

The sheer scale of the actual UK deficit makes redundant any guess at the imagined shortfall facing an independent Scotland.

And it is not just the eye-watering number that is important – it is the argument deployed by both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling argue that, by 2014, the UK will once again be borrowing only to invest.

In other words, even deficit financing on this scale is perfectly possible for a government to carry out. It does not mean the UK has failed as a political or economic entity and should be wound up. It would seem difficult, therefore, to argue that Scotland's independence is impossible because it may or may not face a deficit.

That doesn't mean Jim Murphy, the Scottish Secretary – and what an effective operator he has been recently – will shy away from traditional Labour tactics. The strategy against the SNP for years has basically been to attack Scottish self-esteem by rubbishing the idea of going it alone.

The size of the bank bail-outs have now taken the place of annual deficits as reasons for sticking with London. But although this is likely to have had a short-term impact on soft independence support, its longer-term potency is doubtful. After all, the Prime Minister says he is putting in place rules to ensure such bank collapses cannot happen again.

My big hope is that arguments over independence can soon amount to more than games of statistical tennis over the public finances

For the SNP, a key aim, and one that will dominate over the next year, is the importance of linking the powers of independence to fighting the recession.

Just as Labour will repeatedly accuse the SNP of prioritising constitutional navel-gazing over jobs, so the Nationalists will argue that tax and borrowing powers are absolutely essential to boost employment. But the issue of such powers shows that the debate over independence is not really as polarised as it seems. When I worked for John Swinney, we used the phrase "completing the powers" of the parliament as a means of expressing independence. There are few politicians in Scotland (outside the Labour Westminster group) who do not now agree that the powers should be enhanced. It is just a matter of degree.

One of the big tasks for the SNP is to start setting out more clearly how those powers would be used. The most successful ministers in the current Cabinet have been the most energetic and decisive – no-one, for example, can be in any doubt that Kenny MacAskill is almost obsessively committed to changing our national drinking culture.

In reserved areas, we need to see similar drive. In particular, Scotland is a shockingly unequal country. How much better for our national life if the major parties (both of which are basically centre-left) could engage in a proper, robust and long-lasting exchange on how to address the inequalities that scar Scotland, while recognising that, in a tough, global competitive market, no-one owes our country a living.

In doing so, we would surely engage the voters in a way that the usual rammy over "your deficit is bigger than mine" could never do.

&#149 Ewan Crawford is programme leader, graduate diploma in broadcast journalism, at the University of the West of Scotland. He was private secretary to John Swinney when he was SNP leader.