Year the weather went wonky

By Jenny Fyall
Published on Monday 3 October 2011 23:10

RAVAGED by storms in summer, hit by heatwaves in autumn and brought to a standstill by the most severe winter for a century – the past year has brought weather extremes to Scotland.

The past 12 months have seen records repeatedly smashed, with December the coldest on record, April the warmest, and May the wettest in Scotland.

A washout summer brought flooding to many parts of the country and left Scots shivering through August, but then the sun finally came out at the end of September to beat temperature records.

Meteorologists described 2011 as a year of weather extremes – and warned we are in for another tough winter, with the possibility of snow in northern parts of the country within days.

Experts differ in their views as to the cause, with some blaming climate change and others saying it is probably down to natural fluctuations.

Jim Dale, senior risk meteorologist with British Weather Services, said it was inevitable that temperature records would be broken.

“We are on an upwards cycle,” he said. “We are moving in that direction and it was going to happen sooner or later, given we have conclusively got global warming going on.”

However, he said that as well as climate change there are other influences on the weather which can bring bouts of unsettled weather.

“We are not looking at a situation of Armageddon with out-of-control weather,” he said.

His company is forecasting another snowy winter.

“People will have to be on their toes. We feel not a lot has changed in terms of the patterns of last year, with severe winter weather hitting at times.

“It doesn’t necessarily mean it will be as prolonged or as bad as last December, but we do feel that the Arctic influence will be there at times.

“We are in a period of colder than average winters and that in itself can deliver spikes that result in these short spells of more severe weather.”Brian Gaze, meteorologist and founder of The Weather Outlook forecasters, said it had been an “unusual” year because of the extremely cold winter and chilly summer, followed by the heatwave last week.

“It feels like we have had two summers this year, one in April and one in September,” he said.

He added that cold winters tend to come in clusters, meaning we could be in for another snowy one this year.

However, a spokesman for the Met Office said it was “normal” for several records to be broken in a year.

“We have seen some records broken this year, such as the recent warmest October day or some areas of the UK having their driest spring on record. However, given the number of records that are there to be broken, it’s quite normal to see a few fall in any particular year.

“This is because of the natural variability in our weather, which sees one day, month or year differ from the next.”

And he thought it was not necessarily the case that global warming was responsible.

“At this stage it’s not possible to directly attribute any of this year’s weather events to climate change, but research is ongoing to understand how climate change can impact the chances of extreme weather occurring,” he said.

However, Dr Richard Dixon, director of green group WWF Scotland, is convinced climate change is having an impact, and said we must make sure we adapt.

“April was the warmest ever April and May was the wettest ever May. That’s two records in the same year, which is quite extreme. It reminds us about climate change being really about climate chaos and means extremes are more likely.

“There’s more energy in the atmosphere and so it does more extreme things, whether it’s storms or floods or droughts. If climate change is unchecked it will get much worse.”

The poor weather experienced in Scotland over the past few days is expected to continue through the week, as Hurricane Ophelia, currently heading across Canada, makes landfall. Snow has even been forecast for some parts of the Highlands.

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