Climate change in Scotland ‘to kill the curlew’
Eurasian Curlew
AN ICONIC bird linked to Scotland’s wild moors will struggle to survive the impacts of climate change, new research suggests.
The curlew is easy to identify due to its long curved bill and distinctive trill-like call. It is the largest of Scotland’s wading birds and commonly found in the southern uplands and east Highlands around moors and estuaries.
However, if predictions of a 4C increase in global temperature by 2080 come true, the British Trust for Ornithology has calculated the species could decline in number in the UK by two-thirds.
They have also calculated the likely impact on the meadow pipit, a small songbird common in upland areas.
It would drop in numbers by more than a third according to the BTO’s study. In contrast, two species most common in more southerly parts of the UK, although still seen in Scotland, would see numbers rocket.
The green woodpecker, the largest of Britain’s woodpeckers, would see its population rise by more than 1,000 per cent from the 24,200 breeding pairs in the UK today.
And the nuthatch, a bird that looks like a small woodpecker and is mainly seen in the south with just occasional sightings in Scotland, would see its numbers soar by 190 per cent by 2080.
James Pearce-Higgins, head of population ecology and modelling research for the BTO, said: “Climate change is already affecting our birdlife.
“If future projections of climate change are realised, then the observed trends we have seen – of southerly distributed species tending to increase in abundance and northerly distributed species tending to decline – are likely to continue and become increasingly apparent.
“While for many of us this may mean we see some exciting new bird species in the countryside around us, for others it may mean the tragic loss of some of our iconic northern species.”
He added that, so far, the predictions were showing signs of coming true.
“At a European level, species which models suggest should decline in response to climate change have indeed tended to decline, while those predicted to benefit from climate change have tended to increase in abundance. These changes also seem to be occurring in the UK.”
As well as predicting changes in species of birds in the UK, the BTO is interested in measuring the impact on the abundance of each species and how this might be affected by climate change.
The green woodpecker and nuthatch, meadow pipit and curlew, were the first examples they looked at. The organisation now plans to extend the work to cover a wider range of species.
The research shows that under a “high emissions scenario”, where global temperatures rise by 4C by 2080, the curlew could drop in numbers by 66 per cent. By 2050, under this scenario, it would decline by 35 per cent.
And the meadow pipit would see its numbers fall by more than a third by 2080 and by 19 per cent by 2050.
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Sunday 27 May 2012
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Comments
There are 22 comments to this article
Page 1 of 2
fourbyfour
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 08:54 PMA truly awful article based on nothing more than alarmism. No facts, no science...well this is Climate Science after all...
Faceless_bureaucrat
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 07:38 PMMore scare stories from the green industry. I guess the doctored UEA models are producing more lies. The whole global warming scam will turn out to be biggest scam in human history. One can remember growing up listening to the likes of Jonathan Porrit and George "moonbat" Monbiot scaremongering about our fragile planet , and that was before the discovered the global warming scam. Fake,fake,fake.
Ron Greer
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 04:22 PM10 iconic wind turbines! iconic wind turbines! iconic wind turbines!
Ron Greer
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 04:19 PM18 Red Etin, but don't you know that Slioch has already condemned the sources you got this information from as debunked charlatans in the pay of big coal and big oil. As we know the IPCC has a big 'hockey stick' to deal with dissenters and heretics. Repent ye sinner and get your festering carcass back to that pew in the Church of CO2 Delusion.
Red Etin
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 01:56 PMSlioch: "CO2 in the present warming, and as the "control knob" in many past changes" SORRY, Slioch, we all know that CO2 lags the temperature increase; the warming of the earth CAUSES CO2 concs in the atmosphere to increase, not the other way around. This is because (a) a warming earth causes increased metablism of single cell organisms (b) CO2 is released from the oceans.
Ron Greer
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 01:54 PM13 and 14 I was of course being sarcastic at post 6. Slioch can't have his cake and eat it, but I have some sympathy with his views on Fergus Ewing's committment to ecological sense.
Red Etin
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 01:52 PMIT'S TOOOO LATE!. "We are at the tipping point…“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment." Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the IPCC, 2007. WE'VE TIPPED!
Red Etin
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 01:50 PMGrrrr. What drivle this "environment correspondent" writes. "if predictions of a 4C increase in global temperature by 2080 come true, "? ARE YOU SERIOUS? The "global" temperature has not gone up in the last 10+ years. The "global" temperature has nothing to do with the survival of the curlew.
The Great Bohunkus
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 12:12 PMThe curlew has been in steep decline since the 1950's for a number of reasons. These include loss of habitat to commercial forestry, increased predator numbers in the form of foxes and crows who are afforded sheltered breeding sites by maturing conifer plantations and which raid their nests, and perhaps increased stocking density on upland farms. Remnant curlew populations are now seriously threatened by the proliferation of windfarms, the construction phase of which will disrupt what breeding sites they have left, as well as opening up previously difficult to access moorland areas to walkers and cyclists using access roads. The curlew is undoubtably in big trouble, but climate change is the very least of it's worries.
unimpressedone
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 10:50 AMSo the solution to protecting a moorland species is to build hundreds of useless windmills on upland moorland! Sounds typical of greenie logic.
Ron Greer
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 10:34 AM12 oops, I was referring to post 9
Ron Greer
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 10:34 AMSounds interesting. Perhaps we could stop building useless windfarms and put some of the saved money into R&D into this as well as in to Thorium reactors. We need to know more about the potential for heavy metal pollution and timescales.
WJohn
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 09:19 AMI only came to parenthesis environment parenthesis to see when the gales would subside. Unfortunately weather is not part of our environment. Anyway the curlew was doomed as soon as it was called iconic. What fool did that?
BradArnold
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 09:05 AMMankind will predicably cut their GHG emissions big-time rapidly because it will save big money, so perhaps the curlew will survive: There is a new clean energy technology that is 110th the cost of coal. LENR using nickel. Incredibly: Ni+H(heated under pressure)=Cu+lots of heat. This phenomenon (LENR) has been confirmed in hundreds of published scientific papers: http:lenr-canr.orgacrobatRothwellJtallyofcol.pdf "Over 2 decades with over 100 experiments worldwide indicate LENR is real, much greater than chemical..." --Dennis M. Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center "Energy density many orders of magnitude over chemical." Michael A. Nelson, NASA "Total replacement of fossil fuels for everything but synthetic organic chemistry." --Dr. Joseph M. Zawodny, NASA
unimpressedone
Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 08:53 AM#5, Slioch, when it comes to 'knobs', control or otherwise, you fit the bill with your tripe claims masquerading as grown up science.
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