Eddie Barnes: No vote worries for the Three Wise Men are not chasing votes

Published on Thursday 29 July 2010 20:19

"THEY are going to shoot me," joked Crawford Beveridge, as he left the launch of his budget review yesterday morning.

The former Scottish Enterprise boss was referring to the SNP ministers who, as he was speaking, were thumbing their way through his report along with everyone else there. The chairman of the Independent Budget Review group had just laid out the unaffordable cost of most of their operation. And now everyone knows it.

The choices laid out by the report yesterday would be tough enough for ministers. But they must be contemplated now in the context of one of politics' worst-ever diary clashes. This October, Chancellor George Osborne will let all government departments know exactly how much money they are going to have to do without for the next three years.

In Scotland, finance secretary John Swinney will then have about four months to work out how best to cut. In April, the cuts will begin. And then, a month later, Scotland goes to the polls. After a decade in which money has been sprayed all over Scotland's public sector, Mr Swinney will be left staring into the hose wondering what happened to all that water.

It doesn't take a political genius to work out that this is not the best position in which to try and win votes. Recent by-elections and May's general election have illustrated that Labour's blunt attacks on 'Nat cuts' have worked among their ever-reliable core vote. Never mind who is actually at fault, the strategy appears to follow the traffic jam theory of politics - blame the guy in front.

The question now is whether yesterday's far-sighted report will change all that. It wasn't just the Three Wise Men who were urging politicians to make a fundamental shift in their approach to spending. Leaving the unions aside, there is a growing consensus behind them. Private sector consultancies are now in agreement with local government leaders in arguing it simply can't go on like this. Meanwhile, both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems will also be pressing for reform.

In his response, Mr Swinney appeared to be hedging his bets. Cash for popular universal benefits such as concessionary travel will continue, he pledged. But at the same time, the door now looks ajar for Scottish Water's sale as a not-for-profit company.

In a section on the political context to yesterday's report, the Three Wise Men urge the political parties to put "short-term political imperatives" to one side to gain "cross party agreement". All very well, but they don't have to win our votes. We now know the unpalatable choices before Scotland's politicians. Soon we will find out whether they trust us enough to go ahead with them.