Eddie Barnes: John Swinney will be taking a hard line with his plans for spending

Published on 25/01/2012 12:22

THE grip that matters constitutional hold over Scottish politics will be illustrated in spades today in Edinburgh.

But Mr Swinney should prepare for an encounter with the “News in Brief” column, for all eyes will be focused on the next act up in parliament, when First Minister Alex Salmond spells out how he intends to run the independence referendum. While the Scottish Government hasn’t booked the Popemobile for Mr Salmond’s progress through the capital today, it will be Mr Salmond’s day.

And yet, while drowned out, it is Mr Swinney’s statement which, in the short term at least, will have a weightier impact on people’s pockets. The plans were spelled out by the finance secretary last year. The big-ticket items were extra cash for infrastructure and for “preventative measures” – or efforts to prevent people from needing costly public services in the first place.

But the price of this, and a frozen budget, cannot be disguised. The public sector pay freeze continues for another year, meaning April 2013 is the first possible time anyone gets a rise. And further education colleges and councils are all in line for serious cutbacks. Controversially, Mr Swinney has decided to increase the cash coming in by demanding an extra £40 million this coming year from supermarkets which sell alcohol and tobacco.

The money may be tighter, but Mr Swinney has one significant advantage this year over previous years; with the SNP’s majority, there is no need for horse-trading with other political parties.

So while the finance secretary has his usual spare roll of cash in his back pocket to disburse as the budget negotiations roll on through parliament, he can deal with the other parties from a position of strength. SNP ministers have made it clear that Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories will only get round the table on extra spending demands if they first show what they intend to cut.

Far from making these budget negotiations less interesting, this has the potential to make matters more revealing. The squeeze has shown up Mr Swinney’s priorities, and now it lays down a challenge to the rest, and to Labour leader Johann Lamont in particular. She said, on winning the job last year, that “we need to challenge ourselves” to make the pennies go further, and to accept cuts now there is no spare cash around.

Privately, many Scottish Labour figures are contemptuous of the SNP’s populist measures, such as the council tax freeze, and the various freebies on offer. It may be that tomorrow’s budget process is entirely overlooked amid the constitutional hoopla. But Mrs Lamont has an opportunity to change that, if she chooses to do so.