Eddie Barnes: Everything's coming up roses for Cameron, but can it last?

Published on Wednesday 12 May 2010 23:04

CONSPIRACY theorists watching yesterday's love-in between Nick Clegg and David Cameron must have been asking themselves: was this Mr Cameron's plan all along?

The positives for the Prime Minister from his new coalition pact are three-fold.

First, it has allowed him to get rid of some of the policies – notably the inheritance tax cut – that belonged in a different era and which have hung heavy over the party for the past two years.

Able to blame it on the Lib Dems, an embarrassing U-turn is transformed into a necessary concession.

Second, and related to the first, is the fact Mr Clegg can now be used by Mr Cameron as his own personal human shield.

Despite the sunny outlook in the Downing Street garden yesterday, Mr Cameron knows he could go down as one of the most unpopular prime ministers in British history.

The scale of the spending cuts he is going to have to implement is going to hurt, badly.

But Mr Clegg will now have to accept his share of the pain.

And third, there is the as-yet unfinished Conservative "detoxification" agenda.

There is still a long way to go if the Prime Minister is going to prove – in Tory MSP David McLetchie's phrase – that the party does not want to slaughter first-borns.

The mere image yesterday of Mr Cameron palling up to one of the "nice" parties will do that image incalculable good.

For Mr Clegg, the positives also outweigh the negatives, but not by as much.

The key policy prize of a referendum on electoral reform was a major scalp for the Lib Dems.

On top of that, Mr Clegg must be hoping for a transformational shift in British politics.

Simply being in government means that the UK's Cinderella party must now be taken seriously.

Voters will take note, he hopes.

However, it was notable that it was Mr Clegg yesterday who conceded there were "risks" involved in the deal.

Indeed there are. He will know that the Lib Dems – particularly in Scotland – have left themselves extremely exposed to the jibe that they are now Tory lackeys, willing to sell out their principles for a taste of power.

So will it last? Despite his warm words about stability, it should be remembered that it is only three days since the Lib Dem leader showed a certain ruthless brilliance by announcing he might dump the Tories for a coalition with Labour.

In that instant, he showed that the claims and demands of his own party were at least as important as those of the country.

So if the political going gets tough for the Lib Dems – perhaps as soon as at next year's Holyrood elections – this love-in might yet end in a quickie divorce.