Eastern Europeans push Scotland's population to highest since 1981

Published on Tuesday 28 April 2009 23:00

SCOTLAND'S population has risen to its highest level for nearly three decades, with migrants from Eastern Europe playing a significant role in the changing demographics.

The estimated population last June was 5,168,500 – up 24,300 on 2007 and the sixth year in a row it has increased. It was the highest figure since 1981.

Most of the increase was due to migration, according to figures released yesterday by the Registrar General for Scotland.

In the 12 months to last June, births exceeded deaths by 3,900 – the biggest natural increase since 1991.

But there was a bigger net gain, of 20,000, from inward migration – 11,500 people from the rest of the UK, 7,700 from overseas, including asylum seekers, and 800 from the armed forces.

Registrar General for Scotland Duncan Macniven said the "new Scots" from Eastern Europe, especially Poland, had boosted the country's population.

"We've had a net flow of 20,000 people into Scotland … and they are mostly coming from the rest of the UK," he said. "But the pattern we've seen has been for Europeans – especially Eastern Europeans to settle here.

"About 70 per cent of Eastern Europeans that come to Scotland are Poles – the rest are Lithuanians, people from Latvia and Estonia."

Mr Macniven said it remained unclear whether the migration from Eastern Europe would continue unabated in the light of the economic downturn.

"I would say we're still relatively well-off in the UK and these figures relate to mid-2008 – before the credit crunch.

"But in the last quarter of last year, we have seen a reduction in the number of people from Eastern Europe registering to work here. What we don't have is information about the flow in the other direction and how many people go back," he said.

In recent years, there has been a significant increase in migration to Scotland from other parts of Europe – especially with the influx of "new Scots" from Eastern Europe.

Since 1 May, 2004, when Poland officially joined the European Union and its citizens became eligible to work in the UK, the Polish population in Scotland has rocketed. Although most Poles heading for Scotland have settled in Edinburgh, there is a thriving Polish community of about 3,000 in Inverness.

In the year to last June, 38,500 people came to Scotland from overseas, including asylum seekers, while 30,800 went abroad.

Meanwhile, some 53,300 people came to Scotland from the rest of the UK, with 41,800 leaving Scotland to settle in other parts of the UK.

Among local authority areas, East Lothian saw the biggest population increase – up 1.8 per cent – followed by Perth and Kinross (1.4 per cent) and Midlothian (1.3 per cent). Argyll and Bute had the biggest fall, down 0.9 per cent, followed by the Western Isles and Inverclyde (both 0.4 per cent).

The cities lost people to other parts of Scotland but gained them from the rest of the UK and from overseas. Aberdeen had a net loss of 1,700 people to the rest of Scotland but net gains of more than 300 people from the rest of the UK and more than 2,200 from overseas.

The Scottish Government welcomed the figures. Finance secretary John Swinney said: "I am encouraged that Scotland's population is continuing to grow, and the trend for a growing population appears strong.

"Over the last ten years, population growth in Scotland has lagged significantly behind that of many of our neighbouring countries – something that as a government we are committed to addressing.

"Although the recession demands we focus our efforts on helping households and businesses through the current challenges, population growth will be crucial to delivering the long-term prosperity for Scotland we all want to see."

THE RISE AND RISE OF OUR NATION'S NUMBERS

&#149 The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2008 was 5,168,500, a rise of 24,300 on the previous year and the highest since 1981.

&#149 There were 66 people per square kilometre in Scotland, ranging from 9 persons per square kilometre in Eilean Siar and Highland Council areas to 3,329 persons per square kilometre in Glasgow City Council area.

&#149 Between mid-2001 and mid-2008, Scotland's population increased by 2.1 per cent (+104,300) from 5.06 million to 5.17 million.

&149 In the year to mid-2008, the city council areas experienced net losses of migrants to the rest of Scotland. However, more migrants came to the city council areas from both the rest of the UK and from overseas than went in the other direction;

&#149 In the 12 months up to 30 June 2008, the number of births exceeded the number of deaths by 3,900, the largest natural increase since 1991-92.

&#149 Over the year there was a net migration gain of 20,000 people.

&#149 The net gain from the rest of the UK exceeded that from overseas. Over the year 53,300 people came to Scotland from England, Wales and Northern Ireland and 41,800 left Scotland to go in the opposite direction.