Diplomacy: Efforts to ease tension between two nuclear powers

Published on Saturday 29 November 2008 18:52

FEARS that the carnage in Mumbai could spark a regional conflict between nuclear powers India and Pakistan has led to frantic diplomatic efforts to cool the temperature and ratchet back the rhetoric.

It follows a period during which India and the first democratic Pakistan government since 1999 have made moves towards a tentative rapprochement.

The imminent Indian national elections have underscored the urgent need to identify the source of the attacks.

Narendra Modi, the Hindu nationalist leader of the radical Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has stepped up his attacks on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, alleging that he is unable to combat terrorism, which had already claimed 385 lives in India this year before the events of last week.

With the first of five state elections taking place in Delhi on Saturday, the focus has switched from the economy to security and there is evidence that the BJP's attacks are hitting home with voters.

Modi's election would result in a nosedive in relations between India and Pakistan. The BJP is a coalition of radical Hindu parties which are being investigated for the bombing of Malegaon, a Muslim-majority area near Mumbai, and are committed to keeping India's 154 million Muslims in a sub-ordinate position.

Relations between India and Pakistan already look certain to suffer after this week's terrorist attacks. US intelligence officials said yesterday that some "signatures of the attack" supported India's assertion that "elements in Pakistan" were responsible.

Despite claims of responsibility from the hitherto unknown Deccan Mujahideen, evidence gathered in the past two days pointed to a role for Lashkar-e-Taiba or possibly another group based in Kashmir, Jaish-e-Muhammad, which also has a record of attacks against India. Both have loose affiliations with al-Qaeda and have fought Indian troops in Kashmir.

Indian intelligence said that during the siege the militants used non-Indian mobile phones and received calls from outside the country, evidence that led Indian officials to speak of the militants' external ties. Officials may also have gleaned information from at least one captured gunman who participated in the Mumbai attacks, who is reported to be a Pakistani.

Lashkar-e-Taiba has denied any responsibility for the terrorist strikes. The group has received training and logistical support in the past from Pakistan's powerful Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Pakistan's government has long turned a blind eye to its camps in Kashmir.

Despite the ISI in the past using terrorism by proxies to ensure enmity between India and Pakistan, there is no evidence that the Pakistani government had any role in the attacks. Were evidence to emerge that the operation had been planned and directed from within Pakistan, that would certainly further escalate tensions between India and Pakistan. It might also provoke an Indian military response, even strikes against militants' training camps.

In what was seen as a sign of Pakistan's concern about a possible Indian response, President Asif Ali Zardari pledged to act swiftly if given any evidence of involvement by Pakistani groups or individuals.

But some senior officials were last night warning that provocation from Delhi could see resources diverted away from the fight against the Taliban on the border with Afghanistan.

David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, and the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, both urged restraint upon Delhi. Rice spoke on the phone to Pranab Mukherjee, India's foreign minister yesterday.