'Devo max' is best bet for Nationalists, says John Curtice

Published on Monday 20 June 2011 19:24

ALEX Salmond has to find a way to persuade his party to embrace "devolution max" if he wants to move Scotland towards independence, yesterday's Scotsman conference "What Does The New Parliament Mean for Scotland?" heard.

Polling expert Professor John Curtice said the latest research showed the public's favoured option was so-called "devo max", which would see defence and foreign affairs reserved to Westminster but everything else devolved to Scotland - including taxation and welfare benefits.

Prof Curtice, from Strathclyde University, said the most recent polling showed only 28 per cent favoured the independence option of Scotland taking control of all decisions, including foreign affairs and defence, while 32 per cent favoured devo max, 27 per cent backed the status quo and 10 per cent opposed devolution completely.

However, he suggested those favouring independence could justifiably be seen to accept devo max as option two, meaning 60 per cent of Scots would potentially back it.

"We have the Scottish public in one position (ready to support devo max] but none of the parties are there," he said. "Alex Salmond is constrained as to how far he can go, and what is the positive deal the unionists can offer Scotland? Are they willing to embrace this?"

Prof Curtice said Mr Salmond might not want two separate referendums but that it might be politically wise to have two options.

He concluded: "If you want to win an independence referendum, go for devo max."

Earlier, he said the SNP had three big tasks to move towards independence - to win the economic argument, to overcome the sense of emotional fear that still existed over leaving the UK and to tackle the lack of positive expectation about independence.

"The SNP still have to generate the same sort of interest about independence as was generated about devolution (in the late 1990s]," he said. "But the unionist assumptions that people will think independence will be a disaster are also wrong. Most people do not think it will make any difference."

However, one third of those polled thought Scotland would be economically worse off under independence, he said, adding: "People's fears are not as great as you might imagine, but this is the issue where the SNP really has to win the argument.

"We also asked people if Scotland was to become independent, would you be confident or worried - 54 per cent said they would feel worried and only 25 said confident. A sense of unease, concern and uncertainty is the biggest problem."