Democracy must not be allowed to die

Published on Thursday 3 January 2008 22:27

THE only way for the intercommunal violence in Kenya to subside and for democracy to be saved is for the president, Mwai Kibaki, to accept some form of independent review of the recent disputed elections, and for the leader of the opposition, Raila Odinga, to call off his supporters from violent street protests.

If that does not happen – and if the UN, the African Union and friendly western powers do not bring pressure to bear for this to happen – then one of the most stable and prosperous countries in the continent could descend into chaos and possibly intertribal genocide. Such an outcome must not be allowed to happen.

At the very least, the election count for the Kenyan presidential election is in dispute. Independent observers from the European Union found serious discrepancies between the votes signed off at the ballot stations and the final tallies published by the Kenyan Electoral Commission, after a much-delayed count.

However, what started as a contested election is showing dangerous signs of re-igniting the fierce communal divisions that have provoked violence in Kenya before. It is in everyone's interests, including Mr Kibaki's own Kikuyu and Kalenjin people, to draw back from the brink of civil war. Kenya's tribal groups are too fragmented for any one to dominate. Unless they learn to live together through a working democracy, all will suffer.

Mr Kibaki has offered a tentative olive branch by proposing talks with the opposition, though he insists, as a precondition, that street demonstrations cease. Given the severity of the crisis, this is not going far enough. The violence must stop, but Mr Kibaki must agree to accept some form of independent investigation into vote results if calm is to be restored. The African Union should take the lead in bringing this compromise about, because any tribal instability in Kenya will soon spread to neighbouring countries.

Equally, the man who probably won the election, Mr Odinga, must also pull back from the brink. He is in a position to offer Mr Kibaki his own olive branch – a more federal constitution for Kenya which would give the Kalenjin community in particular more autonomy in their own areas. The danger, of course, is that such federalism might fragment Kenya along tribal lines, but the risk is worth taking if it strengthens a working democracy.

The time is short in which to achieve a settlement. Already, communal violence is spreading and slipping out of the control of the two main leaders. There are also ominous signs of tribal splits among the police and army – a collapse of discipline in the security forces could easily plunge Kenya into the warlordism that is common in other dysfunctional African states.

Democracy in Africa is not a lost cause. The miracle of Kenya is that its people are trying to make democracy work. The rest of the world must come to their aid.