Dead man walking

Published on Saturday 3 May 2008 19:43

IT WAS a disastrous night for Labour. Hundreds of seats and eight councils lost, including many in the 'heartlands' of the Midlands and northern England.

A contrite Prime Minister admitted it was a difficult time, saying "lessons must be learned" and promising to listen to the voters. Despite this, faced with one of the worst nights in Labour's history, backbenchers and party activists started to mutter about whether their leader was now an asset or a liability. This was 2004, and the Prime Minister was Tony Blair. Today, it is Gordon Brown who is contemplating his own political demise.

Blair managed to recover from his humiliation. It remains to be seen if his successor as Prime Minister can come back from the events of last week. With just 24% of the vote, Brown's party was third behind the Lib Dems and the triumphant Tories, out of sight fully 20 points ahead of Labour. The sight of old strongholds such as Bury and North Tyneside falling to the Conservatives offered evidence of just how bad things are for a bloodied, bruised and, frankly, increasingly bewildered Brown.

To Scottish onlookers, last week's results might not have had the drama of the moment in 1997 when it became apparent that Michael Portillo had lost his Enfield Southgate seat, but no one should be blind to the significance of the local election results south of the border. Nor should they underestimate the significance of the election of the gaffe-prone Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as Mayor of London.

Lazy political commentators too often boldly state that the tectonic plates of British politics are shifting. However, this week there has been evidence of genuine upheaval on the country's political landscape. We may be witnessing nothing less than the beginning of the end of New Labour. Brown, in particular, is a shadow of his assured and competent former self. He has the look of a man who is hostage to events over which he has no control.

This has allowed David Cameron to make hay, even though voters remain unsure of exactly what he stands for. It will be interesting to see if the Tory leader can address that policy vacuum in the two years before the next general election; if he wants to be taken seriously as a Prime Minister in waiting then he will have to give the country a concrete policy platform ready for taking power. There is a lingering suspicion that Cameron relies too much on gimmicks and presentation. The success or failure of the Johnson administration may prove decisive in demonstrating the approach and ability of any future Conservative national Government (which, given Boris's unpredictability, must be slightly unnerving for the Cameron camp).

The view from Scotland is somewhat different from that in London, but a potentially decisive conflation approaches. The SNP capitalised on Labour's lethargic administration at Holyrood to take power in Scotland, and has helped show up the failings of the Brown administration. If last week's local results carry forward to a general election, they point to a Tory majority of more than 100 seats. But if Scots remain resistant to the Cameron revival there could be a sense of dislocation similar to that during the Thatcher years. Some commentators have suggested this is part of Alex Salmond's great plan to deliver independence, as he capitalised on tensions between Holyrood and Westminster under the Tories. This cannot be allowed to happen: if Scots make a long-term decision that they want separation, fine – but such a dramatic shift must not come about as a short-term reaction to an unpopular Tory Government. This newspaper believes Scotland's voice on this key matter should be heard sooner rather than later.

There is much at stake, then, as Brown's advisers plot the way forward this weekend. They may agree that their rocky start was inevitable given global economic conditions. They may think the best way forward is to get back to basics and to persuade the country that the Prime Minister is still best placed to steer the economy and protect the pound in our pockets.

They may console themselves that Blair recovered in 2004 to deliver a third election win a year later. But as they worry about whether their man is facing a Major Moment or a Blair Blip they should be under no illusions: Brown looks like a dead man walking.