David Torrance: Cameron's credibility on the line over Calman

Published on Thursday 26 November 2009 21:40

THIRTY years ago, Lord Home, the respected Tory elder statesman and architect of his party's devolution policy, arrived at Edinburgh University to make a speech during the bitter referendum campaign. His message of February 1979 was simple: "A No vote does not and need not imply any disloyalty to the principle of devolution."

In other words, Scots should reject Labour's proposal for a Scottish Assembly because Home, a trusted public figure, was quite sure the next Conservative government would bring forward a better bill. Margaret Thatcher, of course, did no such thing, and her party lived with the consequences for the next 20 years.

By rejecting Labour's white paper on the Calman Commission's proposals and pledging to publish one of its own, the Conservatives have effectively echoed Lord Home's advice of more than three decades ago.

David Mundell, the shadow Scottish secretary, says a Conservative government would "not be bound" by Labour's plan; the party would draft a better white paper on Tory terms.

In as far as it goes, this is a reasonable position for the Conservatives to take so close to a general election. By only committing to legislate on Calman after next year's poll, Labour's aim was to set a trap for their Tory opponents. Cameron and Mundell were too smart to be captured, and thus the present line was born.

If Labour were serious about Calman, as the SNP has pointed out, it could begin the implementation phase immediately. But this does not get the Conservatives off the devolution hook, or at least not yet. History tells us that they simply cannot afford to appear as if they're dragging their feet over Calman, although the mixed messages to date do not auger well.

Let's recall some recent history. First, both the Scottish and UK Conservative parties backed the establishment of a cross-party commission on devolution, with which it participated fully and consensually. When Calman reported earlier this year, Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Tory leader, warmly endorsed its recommendations. At Westminster, David Mundell and his leader also seemed content.

Then the trouble started. A little- noticed internal party revolt, provoked by the opposition of a few MSPs, suddenly transformed the Conservative line from acceptance to a policy of "wait and see". They were mulling over each of Calman's proposals, party spokesmen told puzzled journalists; they were looking forward to seeing what the UK government proposed in its white paper.

This contrived line produced an aroma of fudge, which smelled increasingly bad as time went on, and only with the publication of Labour's white paper on Wednesday did the Conservatives finally lay their devolution cards on the table. One thing is clear. The party's response was determined by the party leadership in London, not Edinburgh. Until Wednesday morning, most Tory MSPs did not even know what their line was going to be.

Thus far, the anti-Calman dissidents have kept quiet, which seems surprising given some of the noises emanating from down south. Alluding to inter-governmental relations, Cameron said on Wednesday that his government would "use the Calman Commission's proposals as a base to repair that relationship and indeed we would go further". Meanwhile, in yesterday's Scotsman, shadow chancellor George Osborne effectively endorsed most of Calman's key recommendations.

This implies that Cameron, whose constitutional instincts are certainly better than Gordon Brown's, is serious about Calman. Until, that is, he let it be known that legislating on Calman would not be a priority should he become prime minister. It all, therefore, comes down to timing. But, there again, history offers the Conservatives some valuable lessons.

Edward Heath entered the 1970 general election with a pledge to establish a Scottish Assembly. Three and a half tumultuous years later, and Ted had done nothing. His government cobbled together various holding lines, but generated the impression that devolution was not high on its agenda. Heath had other priorities, not least an economic crisis.

There is nothing new under the sun. The real risk for a Cameron government is that, by not legislating quickly and decisively to implement Calman, it may never get round to it. There will always be something, to use Cameron's own terminology, which takes priority over strengthening devolution, be it combating the recession, fixing Britain's "broken society" or simply staying in power.

Tony Blair understood the benefit of swift action. He moved quickly on coming to power in 1997. A devolution white paper appeared within weeks; there was a referendum before the end of that year; and the Scotland Act had Royal approval just months after that. With such a degree of political consensus on Calman, Cameron would face few problems in following Blair's example.

If he does not, Cameron will be doomed to repeat Ted Heath's foot-dragging. Having become a genuine convert to devolution, that is something he cannot afford to do. At stake is not only Cameron's credibility when it comes to Scotland's constitutional future, but that of the party he leads. A recent opinion poll shows Tory support in Scotland stuck at 1997 levels, so Cameron is unlikely to have even the luxury of a modest Scottish Conservative revival.

The preoccupation of Cameron's man in Scotland, David Mundell, has always been "positioning" the Scottish Tory party. His nightmare scenario is a UK Conservative government being seen to be stopping the extra powers for the Scottish Parliament that all the other parties want.

That's what makes Cameron's reference to going "further" on Calman so intriguing, and it could come back to haunt him.

Perhaps, just perhaps, it's a hint at something truly radical on the constitutional front. The assembly member David Melding, philosopher-king of the Welsh Conservatives, is even advocating a federalist solution to the UK's ad hoc devolution.

Karl Marx said that history repeats itself, first as tragedy and then as farce. Thatcher's handling of Scottish devolution turned into a tragedy for perceptions of her and her party north of the Border. If Cameron fails to act quickly and convincingly on Calman, then Conservative thinking on the constitution could become a farce.

&#149 David Torrance is a freelance writer, broadcaster and journalist.