David Maddox: Labour's austerity manifesto v the Tory giveaway

Published on Monday 12 April 2010 22:58

AMID all the smiles from Gordon Brown and his ministerial colleagues there was an elephant in the manifesto launch room: there is no money to pay for anything.

In talking about how Labour will shape a better future for the whole of Britain, Mr Brown was essentially trying to put a positive gloss on a desolate prospect. Whoever wins this election will have the arduous and painful task of slashing public services or hiking taxes – or doing both – to get the economy in order.

Labour's manifesto is a 75-page acknowledgement that there is nothing to give away at this election. Which, to be fair, is why Mr Brown said that it was not "a business as usual" manifesto or election.

It also explains why he gave such an evasive answer over raising VAT. Unlike income tax and capital gains tax, there is no guarantee not to raise it.

When questioned on this, Mr Brown said: "I make you an absolute pledge. Since we were elected in 1997 we never raised VAT."

But this was simply a statement of a historical fact, not a promise for the future and certainly leaves open the prospect of a rise in the UK's most indiscriminate tax under Labour – something they have warned the Tories will do and something the Liberal Democrats have not ruled out.

So for now, at least, the days of the giveaway election manifesto are behind us. This document is about promising careful stewardship of the nation's resources and Labour will doubtless be hoping that in the current climate of austerity voters will respect such a careful approach.

It is already clear that despite their clamour about controlling Britain's appalling debt (1.4 trillion) the Conservatives intend to fight a more traditional campaign by offering voters presents such as reversing National Insurance contribution rises, decreasing fuel duty and tax breaks for married couples.

These may be more limited than the usual giveaways but nevertheless they are aimed at appealing to the baser instincts of voters.

It is hard to say which of these will resonate more with the public, but so far the manifesto promises have done little either way to alter a Tory poll lead of around seven points.

Maybe the harsh reality is that, as the speaker introducing Labour's manifesto launch noted yesterday, few copies of manifestos are bought and fewer still are read. The manifestos will just provide the background and ammunition – the election could really be decided in the television studios of the three prime ministerial debates.