Crumbs of comfort amid poll gloom for struggling Nats

Published on Sunday 28 February 2010 21:52

WHEN the SNP acquired the reins of power in 2007, it had one key central purpose. By providing people with three years of effective, popular government, it would succeed in convincing the Scottish public of the merits of independence, and thereby pave the way to a referendum vote in favour of leaving the Union before its term of office was up.

Three years on, that strategy seems to be in tatters. Last week, the SNP delayed putting its referendum bill before parliament. Even if it were eventually to secure the votes it needs to secure the bill's passage at Holyrood, there is now no realistic prospect of the referendum being held before the next Scottish election has to be held.

Now our YouGov poll reveals the SNP government has finally lost much of its popularity, while there remains little enthusiasm for the idea of independence.

Only 36 per cent now think Mr Salmond is doing a good job as First Minister – slightly less than the 38 per cent who think he is doing a bad job. When ICM asked the same question last summer, as many as 52 per cent thought Mr Salmond was doing a good job, and only 18 per cent believed he was doing a bad one. The First Minister's reputation has apparently nosedived.

Meanwhile, the SNP trails Labour by as much as five points in Scottish Parliament voting intentions. No poll conducted since 2007 has previously put the Nationalists so far behind.

But even leaving aside the apparent unpopularity of Mr Salmond and his government, it seems three years in power has done little to associate the SNP in the public's mind with an ability to be effective in specific policy areas. It might come as little surprise that only 9 per cent think the SNP can handle asylum and immigration best or that only 10 per cent think it is the best party on unemployment – even fewer in both cases than think the Tories are best. These, after all, are both issues where most of the relevant policy levers are in the hands of Westminster rather than Holyrood.

But the Nationalists must be disappointed that just 12 per cent think the party is best able to handle the NHS and only 13 per cent education and schools, and that on both these issues, too, the party trails the Conservatives. Both are, after all, at the heart of the work of the Scottish Government, for which the SNP has been responsible. Its efforts in running the nation's schools and hospitals have seemingly made little lasting impression. Meanwhile, only 27 per cent now say they would vote for independence in a referendum on the subject. That is two points below the proportion who said they would vote that way when YouGov last posed the question in November, and one point below the previous all-time low recorded by the company last August.

We should not, of course, pay too much attention to such small differences. But the overall message is clear. Support for independence remains in the doldrums, Even if Mr Salmond were to find the votes he needs at Holyrood to get his referendum bill passed, there seems little immediate prospect that he would manage to win the subsequent vote amongst the general public.

Yet, perhaps, there is a silver lining for Mr Salmond. For no less than 31 per cent say they would be more likely to vote for independence should the Conservatives win the forthcoming general election. Only 2 per cent say they would be less likely. So maybe a change of power at Westminster might yet breathe new life into campaign for independence? Such figures do, however, have to be treated with some caution. A fair chunk of those who say they would be more likely to vote for independence are people who say they would vote SNP in a forthcoming Westminster or Holyrood election. Most of those would probably back independence anyway.

More interesting is the fact that around two-fifths of both Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters say they would be more likely to vote for independence should the Conservatives come to power. Many of them at least would not back independence in current circumstances. The leaderships of both these parties might find it more difficult to resist some kind of vote on Scotland's constitutional future if Mr Cameron does, indeed, become prime minister.

Meanwhile, however, Mr Salmond's task is to maximise his own party's vote in the forthcoming UK election. And here, too, our poll provides some comfort. Tory and Labour politicians are wont to argue that, as the SNP has no prospect of forming the UK government, a SNP vote is a wasted vote in a Westminster election. But it seems only one in three Scots agree with them. Even so, that still leaves Mr Salmond with the challenge of persuading the electorate of his party's merits in the first place.

&#149 John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.