Calman report could provide the catalyst for referendum deal

Published on Saturday 29 November 2008 18:52

THE form of words is going to become all too familiar: "I agree the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state."

Alex Salmond is hoping that come November 30, 2010, Scots will go into the voting booths and tick the 'YES' box next to this statement.

The plan is set out in the Referendum (Scotland) Bill, which was presented to the Holyrood Parliament 10 months ago. Even so, the timetable is incredibly tight for the successful passage of this legislation. Is the neat sequence of events envisaged by the SNP leading to a referendum really feasible?

The economic downturn and the bank bailouts have pushed independence off the agenda with talk of constitutional upheaval proving unsettling at a time of crisis. But even without global meltdown, as the leader of a minority administration, Salmond still faces a devilishly difficult battle to get a Referendum Act passed by 2010.

Securing parliamentary support at Holyrood is perhaps the most obvious hurdle – with Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives all currently opposing a referendum.

Things have changed since May this year, when the then Labour leader Wendy Alexander taunted the SNP to "bring it on" and challenged Salmond to resolve the independence question once and for all, leading to a rift with Labour at Westminster when Gordon Brown denied that a referendum was party policy.

The political landscape has shifted, with Alexander's replacement, Iain Gray, not appearing to share her enthusiasm for annoying London, or her commitment to more fiscal responsibility. His view on a referendum was clear shortly after he took over.When asked about Labour support for an independence poll, he replied: "That ship has sailed."

But Salmond's referendum is not dead in water by any means. The SNP's plan B comes courtesy of the Calman Commission, headed by Sir Kenneth Calman, above, the chancellor of Glasgow University.

Set up by the opposition pro-Union parties, the commission is charged with looking at what new powers should be given to Holyrood with the emphasis on improving financial accountability. The publication of its report next summer will almost certainly lead to a complex game of political poker as Salmond attempts to keep some form of constitutional referendum on the agenda.

Although the Lib Dems remain opposed to an SNP-led independence poll, the party has argued for a much more radical and ambitious home rule settlement for Scotland with strong tax powers.

The Calman report could provide the catalyst for Salmond and Tavish Scott, the Lib Dem leader, to strike a deal. Together, they could argue for a "multi-option" referendum that asks the electorate to rate three different constitutional settlements in order of preference. On the ballot paper would be: status quo; outright independence; and an option becoming known as Devo Max, which would appeal to the Lib Dems.

There are, however, concerns about potentially choosing a country's constitution by second preference votes. If the Lib Dems are confident of their position, they may yet agree to a straight head-to-head choice between Devo Max and independence.

Adding to the intrigue would be the role played by the Tories in any such deal. At Holyrood the party is split on the issue of more fiscal autonomy for the Parliament. Some, such as Murdo Fraser, the deputy leader, believe more powers ought to be transferred while Annabel Goldie, the party leader, is reluctant.

Both the Tories and Labour are waiting for the Calman Commission report before they make their position clear.

Despite the Nationalists' protestations, Calman will prove more important than the SNP's National Conversation, which was set up by them to examine independence and the constitution. Recent polls indicate that economic troubles have led to support for independence falling by 4% in from 39% in July to 35% this month.

Adding to the intrigue is the forthcoming General Election, which could put the Tories in power in London without a mandate in Scotland and run by a Westminster leadership that has yet to express a view on the future of devolution. Additionally, the role played by the Liberals could become even more crucial in the event of a hung parliament.