Budget analysis: From hero to zero in high-risk strategy

Published on Wednesday 28 January 2009 20:54

AT FIVE minutes to five yesterday afternoon, Patrick Harvie was on the verge of securing the biggest and best policy achievement for the Green Party in British political history.

He had taken the Scottish Government down to the wire, using brinkmanship and threats to cajole and force ministers to offer him 33 million for a nationwide home insulation package.

He had first demanded 100 million a year, the Scottish Government had offered 22 million, but Mr Harvie had refused and demanded 33 million.

At that point, just before five o'clock, when John Swinney stood up to confirm that 33 million would indeed be spent on the scheme, it really looked as if Mr Harvie had secured a coup. There was one slight problem – Mr Swinney did not guarantee that all the money would be new money.

That was it as far as Mr Harvie was concerned as he, and his fellow Green MSP Robin Harper, voted against.

The Budget has fallen and, for the moment at least, so has Mr Harvie's insulation scheme.

In the end, the Greens may get the scheme as they demanded it, but they do not know that for certain. There is a chance that Mr Swinney might decide it is easier to get a deal from Labour. Then they will have nothing. It has been a high-risk strategy.

This morning, Mr Harvie could have woken up to headlines lauding him as a master tactician. Instead, he now faces an angry Scottish Government, a Budget which has to be renegotiated and the possibility of an election. Only he will know if it was really worth it.