Brown speech 'will be his last as leader'

Published on Saturday 13 September 2008 19:36

THE week before party conference means one thing for a party leader: planning The Speech.

Gordon Brown had better enjoy his writing. If the plotters on his front and back benches have anything to do with it, his second speech as Labour leader in Manchester's Central Convention Complex next week will also be his last.

If there were any doubts beforehand, they have surely been settled now. The events of the past 48 hours have established that the growing panic within Labour over Brown's leadership is very real indeed.

One very senior Scottish party figure said: "There is only one person in Downing Street who now believes that we can win. And that is Gordon Brown."

Another minister added with ominous finality: "This will be Gordon's last conference as Labour leader. No question about it."

By yesterday evening, three MPs, two of whom had positions of responsibility within the Government, had publicly called for a leadership contest.

Nine MPs, meanwhile, have asked for nomination papers to be sent out. A total of 70 MPs are needed to sign the papers of a candidate before a contest is triggered. Few expect an immediate challenge, but their requests cast the appearance of a process now inexorably under way.

Brown has suffered another poor week. While his 1bn scheme to get energy firms to pay for improved insulation was welcomed by some, by Thursday, it was holed badly when it emerged that only those above 70 years of age would get free help – not all pensioners, as first promised.

Then news filtered through that Brown's respected Scottish spin doctor, Paul Sinclair, would be quitting Downing Street after just three months in the job, further proof of the internal faction-fighting which insiders say is crippling Brown's regime.

On Friday, Brown suffered a shattering blow to his authority when one of his own whips, Siobhan McDonagh, called for a contest to replace him as Labour leader.

The first member of the Government to publicly call for his removal, she was fired by tea time, as Downing Street sought to regain some control. That lasted until breakfast, when another normally loyal MP, Joan Ryan, revealed she too wanted a vote.

By lunchtime, the former Minister, who worked as Brown's envoy to Cyprus, had also been fired.

But the move stemmed the flow for just minutes, as it emerged that three more MPs – George Howarth, Fiona McTaggart and Graham Stringer – confirmed they had asked the party to send out nomination papers.

The drip-drip agony is now set to continue. Other MPs who are likely to come forward include Mike Hall, Kate Hoey, Frank Field and Jim Dowd. Behind them a hard-core of plotters within Brown's ministerial team are waiting their turn.

The "default plan", as one of those ministers put it, is to get rid of Brown if and when Labour flops in next May's European elections. That would result in a leadership election at next year's national conference.

However, the timetable is now moving forward. "It may be that he'll be out by Christmas now," the minister added. The by-election in Glenrothes, likely to take place on November 5, moves ever higher in terms of political significance.

Brown's allies were insistent yesterday that the plotters only amounted to a tiny fraction of the parliamentary party.

Tony Lloyd, the chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party, said: "This handful of people who are coming out of the woodwork are not going to trigger a leadership contest."

Schools Secretary Ed Balls, Brown's closest Cabinet ally, declared there was "very little chance" of Brown being ousted before the next general election.

But the appearance of unity is becoming almost impossible to maintain. An article in this week's Progress magazine, signed by 12 MPs, including six former ministers and Falkirk MP Eric Joyce, attacks the Cabinet for having offered "no explanation" as to how they would navigate the economy.

Recent policies, they warned, were "defensive", at a time when the party needed to be "bold".

Others point out that while the MPs who have come out publicly are not well-known, all have close links to ministers in the Government who share their views. The intervention of McDonagh – who holds a safe seat and has never crossed Downing Street in 11 years as an MP – is being seen to be particularly significant.

All that Brown can cling on to is that McDonagh and her allies admit they have no idea who else should be in charge.

The chaos last night led to fresh calls from Labour's opponents for an immediate general election.

Chris Grayling, the shadow work and pensions secretary said: "The Labour Party is quite clearly degenerating into a state of civil war. We need an early election to get the change Britain so desperately needs."

Speaking at the start of his party's annual conference in Bournemouth, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg added: "It's the end for Labour. I do not think there is any way back for them. They no longer stand for anything that the vast majority of British people need or want".

Draft copies of Brown's speech at conference next week are said to contain a mea culpa message from the Prime Minister over the appalling 12 months he and the Labour party have suffered under his leadership.

But unless he offers a vision for how he can lead convincingly over the next 12, his party's apparent unravelling looks set to continue.

Poll blow

Labour goes into the party conference season 19 points behind the Tories after failing to make up significant ground with recent initiatives, according to a poll released last night.

The YouGov survey puts the Conservatives up one on 46%, and Labour up two on 27%. It suggests the Government's economic recovery package this month has done little to improve Labour's chances of beating the Tories.

The 1bn energy package announced by Prime Minister Gordon Brown came while the poll was being undertaken.

The Liberal Democrats, gathering in Bournemouth for their annual conference, are down two points on 16%.

Some 73% of voters felt Brown was doing a bad job as Prime Minister, against 20% who thought he was doing well. That gave him a net negative rating of 53%, while Tory leader David Cameron had a net positive rating of 27%.

&#149 YouGov questioned a representative sample of 2,161 British voters online between September 10 and 12.

The rebels

FIONA MacTAGGART

Age: 55

Elected 1997, responsibility for the criminal justice system until 2006

GRAHAM STRINGER

Age: 58

Elected 1997, first to call for Gordon Brown to resign

JOAN RYAN

Age: 53

Elected 1997, parliamentary under-secretary at Home Office 2006-07

GEORGE HOWARTH

Age: 59

Elected 1986, parliamentary roles at Home Office and Northern Ireland, member Privvy Council since 2005

SIOBHAIN MCDONAGH

Age: 48

Elected 1997, ex-PPS to John Reid, and junior whip 2007-08

GORDON PRENTICE

Age: 57

Elected 1992, did not endorse Gordon Brown as party leader

JANET ANDERSON

Age: 58

Elected 1992, former junior whip and ex-under secretary at culture department